My OddsDash predictions this weekend
I’ll be starting this thread of weekly posts by just focusing on the Premier League weekend. Just the four matches I’ve considered, I had no confidence in the other fixtures. Perhaps Brentford to win? And Chelsea to not win by 2+ goals? We’ll see, but I haven’t put them on this list.
Premier League
Nottingham Forest v Brighton & Hove Albion
While Forest have been a lovely surprise story for everyone this season, currently third in the league table, their underlying numbers suggest that they should not be doing as well as they currently are. They currently have ten points more than their expected points, which would place them at ninth, two spaces above Brighton’s expected position.
While I have the feeling that Forest will regress to their expected position very soon, I don’t believe they will lose this weekend against an in-form Brighton. Despite the fact that Brighton haven’t lost in their last five travels, winning twice and drawing three times, they drew against West Ham, Aston Villa, and Leicester. Both wins came against struggling Manchester United and relegation battlers Ipswich Town.
Forest have won four of their last five home matches against Southampton, Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Ipswich Town. The sides’ xG difference for these last five home/away fixtures stands as: Forest +1.7, Brighton +0.3. Brighton are currently scoring as much xG as they are conceding, which makes the three draws more understandable..
I believe Forest will win, but I would prefer to have insurance for a draw in this match due to the lack of defeats for either side in their home/away form. The market on Betfair Exchange (other exchanges/bookies are available), at the time of writing, has a Forest win or draw at odds of 1.86 on the Asian Handicaps (Forest 0); my model suggests it to be closer to 1.71.
BET: Forest 0 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)
| Forest Win: | +£8.70 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Brighton Win: | -£10.00 |
Everton v Leicester City
Since Moyes has returned at Goodison Park, Everton have been let off the leash while in attack. Their defensive foundations left by Dyche’s systems should set them up well going forward under Moyes who has shifted the sides focus temporarily on attack.
Although a small sample size, Everton have averaged 1.2 xG since Moyes took charge, compared to the 0.9 xG scored on average under Dyche this season. They are hosting a Leicester side who have picked up just eight points from a possible thirty-three away from home this season (W:2, D:2, L: 7).
Leicester are coming off the back of a brilliant away victory at injury-ridden Spurs, but before then they had failed to collect any points in any of their previous five away fixtures (dating back to their draw vs Ipswich on 02/11/24). Leicester are also scoring goals, having only failed to score in two of their eleven away matches this season. However, I think Everton may just edge this game and pull away from Leicester in the table.
Betfair’s handicap line is at -.75/+.75, with odds for Everton over 2.0. Our model suggests 1.70 would be more suitable for Everton. Feels like a risky one, but I will go for it. I’ve had success with my bets on Everton since Moyes took over.
BET: Everton -.75 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)
| Everton win by 2 or more goals: | +£10.90 |
| Everton win by 1 goal: | +£5.45 |
| Draw/Leicester City Win: | -£10.00 |
Wolves v Aston Villa
This next selection is one I would decide to place after the transfer deadline has passed. Villa have lost Duran to Saudi Arabia, and Watkins is under offer from Arsenal. If they were to lose Watkins, I’d feel a lot more confident about making this wager. If not then maybe I’ll reconsider, keep posted here.
Wolves are in poor form. The new-manager bounce has popped and they are without a win in five games, scoring just three goals and shipping twelve in the other end. Everything leads to Aston Villa winning here… except one little niggle…
Villa have just played a midweek game in Europe against Celtic. Now why does that matter? Well, this season they have only won one (out of seven) match after playing in the Champions League midweek. Interestingly, the team they beat was Wolves back in September. Their record this season after playing a midweek game in Europe: W:1, D:3, L:3. A fully rested Wolves could get a decent point here.
BET: Wolves +.25 at 2.08 (Asian Handicap)
| Wolves win: | +£10.80 |
| Draw: | +£5.40 |
| Aston Villa win: | -£10.00 |
Arsenal v Manchester City
City have started to come out of their rough patch. But they still look incredibly shaky. If Arsenal score first and early, they could smell blood. But they just need to find the back of the net. Arsenal are strong right now, despite the fuss about them needing a striker. They haven’t lost a league match since playing away at Newcastle at the start of November.
Arsenal’s xG difference in their last five home matches is +5.5, compared to City’s last five away xGD: +1.7. Arsenal are creating chances, but it’s their defensive work which is doing the wonders, conceding just 2.3 xGA in those last five home matches. City are giving chances away like never before right now, conceding 7.2 xGA away from home in their last five games. This is a must win game for Arsenal, and I think they have the tools to do it right now.
The current market has Arsenal priced to win at 2.12. They were stronger odds favourites a week ago but after City’s recent wins against Club Brugge and Chelsea, their price has risen slightly. This provides a slight edge, as my model suggests, Arsenal’s odds of winning should be around 1.85 (54% probability).
(Side note: might put a small £1 bet on Gabriel scoring a goal in this match. He has scored from corners in Arsenal’s really important matches this season)
BET: Arsenal win at 2.12
| Arsenal win: | +£11.20 |
| Draw/Man. City win: | -£10.00 |
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Liverpool have two really tricky away matches coming up, and the first one is against Bournemouth who should be third in the table if you follow expected points. Since Bournemouth’s last defeat in the league (2-1 at home against Brighton in November), they have scored twenty-five goals and conceded just nine.
They have been keeping out the goals, as have Liverpool. Whether I believe Bournemouth will get a win here is a different topic, but I think this is a much harder match for Liverpool than their fans may anticipate
Liverpool may win this game, but I’m plugging for a draw. My model leans against a Liverpool win, so I’ll go for it – prepared to lose it though.
BET: Bournemouth +.75 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)
| Bournemouth Win | +£10.70 |
| Draw | +10.70 |
| Liverpool win by 1: | -£5.00 |
| Liverpool win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
Leave a comment