04/02/25: Weekday Bets

Results from the Weekend

Wow, what a lovely start that was. I successfully predicted an Arsenal win (although did not expect it to be so emphatic!), Aston Villa to falter after a Champions League match (again!), and Everton winning by more than 2+ goals!

I did make an extra bet which I did not include in the article which I shall highlight, they was a late inclusion to my slip. Next time I’ll be sure to share any extra bets on my socials if it’s after I have published an article.

Profit / Loss from 01/02/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Nott’ Forest v Brighton	Forest 0	1.86	10.00	+8.70
Bournemouth v Liverpool	Bournemouth +.75	2.07	10.00	-10.00
Everton v Leicester	Everton -.75	2.09	10.00	+10.90
Wolves v Aston Villa	Wolves +.25	2.08	10.00	+10.80
Arsenal v Man City	Arsenal Win	2.12	10.00	+11.20
Man Utd v Crystal Palace	Palace +.5	2.01	10.00	+10.10
			Total Profit	+41.70

The Palace +.5 bet was the late inclusion I mentioned above. Completely missed it while researching the weekend’s games. A very strong start. Cup games follow this weekend’s matches, so we will focus on just two Championship mid-week matches.

Championship

Burnley v Oxford United

Both sides are in unbeaten form but also both lacking in goals. Burnley have played out four nil-nil matches in their last five home games, while Oxford have drawn three, won one and lost the other away.

While the market favours a Burnley win at 1.51 odds, the model is less sure and suggests odds over EVES at 2.06. Burnley boast their incredible defensive record this season but have little to show for it at the other end. Surely not another 0-0? If they win, I can’t see it being by more than +1 goal, and a draw seems the most likely result here.

Betfair markets currently have Oxford +1.0 priced at 2.06, while my model suggests it should be significantly lower at 1.42 (70% probability). Could be a huge miscalculation, but look at the evidence so far this season, it seems logical to make this bet.

BET: Oxford +1.0 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)

Oxford Win:	+£10.70
Draw:	+£10.70
Burnley Win by 1 goal:	£0.00
Burnley Win by 2 or more:	-£10.00

This handicap line explained (£10 stake example)

Coventry City v Leeds United

Like the previous bet, both sides are in great form. Coventry are unbeaten in seven home matches, scoring thirteen goals and conceding just six. Leeds are unbeaten in their last five away matches, scoring seven goals and conceding four.

The expected points table has suggested for a while that Coventry should be just behind Leeds in the table at 2nd place, however they are actually positioned at 11th.

Coventry have also beaten Leeds in their last two home games. Leeds’ last victory away at Coventry was in 2010.

While the market prefers Leeds to win, I think Coventry are being undervalued here. A quick look at the handicaps.. the +.5 market has Coventry priced at 2.05, when my model suggests it should be around 1.85. We will be ok if Leeds do NOT win.

BET: Coventry +.5 at 2.05 (Asian Handicap)

Coventry Win:	+£10.50
Draw:	+£10.50
Leeds Win:	-£10.00

This handicap line explained (£10 stake example)