Results from the Mid-week games

Yeah, these two bets did feel iffy but there was a slight edge to be had over the market hence why I went with these. Leeds comfortably won against Coventry, with the match wrapped up basically from half time at 2-0.

The Burnley/Oxford Game I felt a bit hard done by. Lost that bet via an OWN GOAL. I had felt that this match may end in a score draw or 0-0 but nope, a crossed ball trundled into the back of the net after a defensive leg from Oxford’s Helik blocks it from reaching the centre of the 6 yard box ensures we make zero profit from these two matches.

If you could win them all, we’d all be rich. This puts my total profit/loss at +£31.70 (5 wins from 8 bets). Heads up, onto the next ones.

Profit / Loss from 04/02/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Burnley v Oxford United	Oxford +1.0	2.07	10.00	STAKE RETURNED
Coventry City v Leeds Utd	Coventry +.5	2.05	10.00	-10.00
			Total Profit	-10.00

Okay, we are looking at three leagues this weekend: English Championship, Spanish La Liga, and the German Bundesliga.

Championship

Sunderland v Watford

An interesting one where my model massively disagrees with the market line. Could be a massive edge or pure mis-calculation. Remember, models do not take account injuries or player form, and Watford are missing… Bayo.

Sunderland are the side having a wonderful season (one defeat in ten), and Watford are dropping off hard after an initial decent start (two wins in ten). I played around with my model to use just data from this season only and it still suggested a similar set of probabilities on the -1.0/+1.0 line, intrigued.

Feel free to stay clear of this bet. I’m just curious to see what the model sees, as it suggests a price of 1.47 for Watford here.

Norwich v Derby

There has been no shortage of goals at Carrow Road this season. Fifty-five goals scored between Norwich City and their visitors in just fourteen matches, that’s an average of 3.92 per game. They are hosting a Derby side who have been abysmal away from home this season, with just one win from fifteen (Norwich have lost just twice).

While there is a chance of a draw here, I’m backing the handicap line of -.75 in favour of Norwich at 1.93. My model lines up with the market prices, backing up the choice.

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano v Valladolid

Valladolid have only won once away from home in the league this season, and have lost their other ten matches. They have score eight goals in those eleven away games, conceding 32! That’s 2.9 goals conceded per game (2.0 xG conceded per game too!). That would be enough for me to wager, but I need more assurance. Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in eight matches. That’ll do.

Bundesliga

Dortmund v Stuttgart

This looks to be a really good game to watch this weekend. Dortmund will be looking for revenge form the return fixture where they were taken apart by Stuttgart by five goals to one. Although, you would have to go back five games ago between these two teams to find when Dortmund last won.

The visitors come into this game off the back of two defeats, and will be looking to go back to winning ways again. While the hosts, Dortmund, have failed to win in their last four home matches (three draws and one loss), despite winning all of their other home matches since the start of the season. Their home form has recently stumbled, but maybe it will change now they’re back from the winter break. We’ll see.

The market has priced Stuttgart +.5 at 2.05, but my model suggests it should be closer to 1.7…