Results from last weekends games

Feel a bit cheated this week but I’m still happy with my selections, just didn’t get the rub of the green. Let’s digest the losses first: Rayo scored just one goal from an xG of 2.3 (hm), which resulted in no profit or loss, just a return of the full stake – needed a +2 score for Rayo to win money. Unlucky but at least the money was returned.

Leverkusen managed to create 1.5 xG but only had one shot on target against Wolfsburg, if they had their shooting boots on this could have been an easy win. Norwich provided the most frustrating result of the weekend for me though, leading 1-0 and conceding a penalty to Derby in the 92nd minute. I did write in my analysis that there was a chance of a draw so I can’t complain too much.

The Madrid derby… this was probably a fair result to be honest. They’ve somehow managed to play out three consecutive 1-1 draws against one another at the Bernabéu. Expected more from Madrid, however I never seem to win when I make a bet in a match they’re involved it – GAH.

The wins: my biggest suprise was Sunderland drawing with Watford (late equaliser from the hosts). This was a suprise because my model price and the bookie price did not match by a mile. And my model was right, it might not have been a miscalculation.. or maybe luck? Sunderland did miss two one-on-ones after equalising in the final few minutes.. oh well, it won either way.

Stuttgart beat Dortmund once again, this felt like a fine bet while writing up and it was. Congrats if you made this one too. Bristol City, hm. Yeah, I don’t even want to mention this one.

Made a loss this week of -£9.10, therefor my current P/L stands at £22.60.

Profit / Loss from 07/02/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Rayo Vallecano v Valladolid	Vallecano -1	1.92	10.00	STAKE RETURNED
Sunderland v Watford	Watford +1	2.08	10.00	+£10.80
Dortmund v Stuttgart	Stuttgart +.5	2.05	10.00	+£10.50
Wolfsburg v Leverkusen	Leverkusen -.75	2.11	10.00	-£10.00
Norwich v Derby	Norwich -.75	1.93	10.00	-£10.00
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid -.5	1.94	10.00	-£10.00
Bristol City v Swansea	Bristol City -.5	1.93	10.00	-£10.00
Mallorca v Osasuna	Osasuna +.25	2.03	10.00	+£5.15
Inter v Fiorentina	Fiorentina +1.25	1.89	10.00	+£4.45
			Total Profit	-£9.10

Before writing this up I did make two more bets on Monday night: Osasuna +.25 and Fiorentina +1.25, they both returned money so I have added those onto the table above. I’m thinking, if these posts eventually got more attraction then I’ll add additonal bets onto an email newsletter. Onto this weeks, we need more plusses.

Premier League

Everton v Liverpool

The Merseyside derby, always NEVER a classic at Goodison Park. However this one could be different due to it being the final one being played at this stadium before Everton’s move next season.

My model has suggested the market’s current price of 1.96 for an Everton +1.25 is too high, and it should be closer to 1.49! I can see why it might think that, with Everton’s great home defensive record this season. And it thinks they can nullify Liverpool’s decent attack too? Interesting.

To be honest, as I said the Goodison Merseysides have been not fun to watch. Liverpool have only won twice in their last two visits too, which is extremely positive viewing here. And whenever I watch this game it’s always 0-0. We’re going for it.

Championship

Derby v Oxford

Strange one this one. Oxford have only won once away from home this season, and Derby just six at home. Derby also coming into this off the back of four straight home defeats. Both teams are in the lower quarter of the table, so it should be a must win for either (hopefully less likely result of a draw, I’m telling myself).

However my model suggests this line should be closer to 1.65. We get half of our stake back if it’s draw, let’s roll with it.

Portsmouth v Cardiff

Same as the match above, both teams facing a must win match at the bottom of the table. AND, Cardiff also have only won once away from home this season like Oxford. However they have drawn eight times, which is more than they’ve lost.

Portsmouth however have had a good run at home recently, recently being seven matches unbeaten. But it has stumbled in the last two matches.

My model suggests this line should be close to 1.7, however it’s currently priced at 1.99 on Betfair. Portsmouth to get the job done here.