Results from midweek
HEY HEY CONGRATS IF YOU DID MY MERSEYSIDE BET! That was a bet made with full confidence, and the match turned out to be a cracker too. Special shoutout to TARKOWSKIIIII who turned our bet from a profit of £4.80 into £9.60 in the final minute. This match completed a decent three match selection.
We don’t have to discuss Derby v Oxford, just a 0-0 which meant we had half our stake returned. Derby did try, they did. Oxford didn’t turn up at all. On another day we get that one. Portsmouth did the goods for us by going 2-0 up early on.
Profit / Loss from 11/02/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby v Oxford | Derby -.25 | 1.95 | 10.00 | -£5.00 |
| Portsmouth v Cardiff | Portsmouth -.25 | 1.99 | 10.00 | +£9.90 |
| Everton v Liverpool | Everton +1.25 | 1.96 | 10.00 | +£9.60 |
| Total P/L: | +£14.50 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£37.10 |
Onto this weekend’s bets.. I have a bumper one for you lot! Just the TWELVE bets for you to consider. Let’s dig in…
Premier League
FRIDAY
Brighton v Chelsea
My confidence level for this bet isn’t high, but there is an apparent edge according to the model. Neither side are in their best form right now, and this match comes off the back of them both playing in the FA Cup against each other on the weekend (2-1 win for Brighton).
Brighton haven’t won in their last five home matches (D3, L2), and Chelsea haven’t won in their last four away matches (D2, L2). I would steer clear of this one but I felt the same in regards to the Sunderland v Watford match last week and that bet won, I will trust the model (suggested price: 1.75). You don’t have to.
BET: Brighton +.25 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Brighton Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | +£4.50 |
| Chelsea Win: | -£10.00 |
SATURDAY
Fulham v Nottm Forest
These two sides are interesting. Interesting because in the expected points table they both swap places. Forest are expected to be ninth, while Fulham in third. But in the actual league table Forest sit third, Fulham ninth. Does that information have anything to do with this match prediction? Not at all, just found it interesting. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Forest are coming to Craven Cottage on the back of four wins in their last five away matches, meanwhile the hosts have failed to win any of their last five home matches (DDDDL). On top of that, Forest have only lost three times away from home this season (Arsenal, Man City, Bournemouth). My model suggests a price of 1.75, the market is currently at 2.0. This one feels safe to wager.
BET: Forest +.25 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)
| Forest Win: | +£10.00 |
| Draw: | +£5.00 |
| Fulham Win: | -£10.00 |
West Ham v Brentford
Brentford have had a really tough set of away fixtures since the start of the season having lost to the following teams: Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Man Utd, Fulham, Aston Villa, Chelsea.
With those quite unfair run of travels out the way we might expect Brentford to start collecting points on the road. My model suggests they have a 68% probability of picking up a point or three against West Ham.
BET: Brentford +.25 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)
| Brentford Win: | +£8.50 |
| Draw: | +£4.25 |
| West Ham Win: | -£10.00 |
Crystal Palace v Everton
The home side have recently turned their season around having started poorly. Well, away from home they have. Palace are unbeaten in their last seven away trips, but at home they are struggling. Just two wins in their twelve matches for Palace.
Everton could be confident going into this off the back of a great result against Liverpool, and they should be. I would comment about their away form not being special this season but since Moyes came in they have only been on the road once, and that was a loss at Brighton. Tight at the back and now discovering the opponents net, my model believes this price should be closer to 1.87.
BET: Everton +.5 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)
| Everton Win/Draw: | +£10.70 |
| Crystal Palace: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
Liverpool v Wolves
This one feels more risky. Liverpool are more than capable of sticking three past Wolves, but they are starting to concede goals. Plus, scoring goals hasn’t been on Wolves’ list of concerns this season.
Liverpool have only won by 3 or more goals twice at home this season (4-1 v Ipswich, 3-0 Bournemouth), and they’ve conceded in all but four. Wolves are in the odds of scoring at Anfield in this game, having only failed to score in three of their twelve away games.
There isn’t much edge on this one with my model, it agrees with the current market price. This just feels like it could be a good bet, especially with Liverpool wanting to right the wrongs from their draw against Everton.
BET: Wolves +2 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)
| Wolves Win/Draw: | +£10.00 |
| Liverpool win by 1 goal: | +£10.00 |
| Liverpool win by 2 goals: | £0.00 |
| Liverpool win by 3 or more goals: | -£10.00 |
Championship
SATURDAY
Oxford v Portsmouth
Ok, straight into this one. Portsmouth have not won a game away from home in their last eleven coach rides. In that time they’ve scored just six goals and shipped twenty-six. They are having a hard time of it on the road.
Oxford on the other hand… unbeaten in their last five home matches. Four wins and a draw! They have been good defensively too, conceding less than 1.0 xG in each of those five games.
This is a half stake return bet, if the match is a draw we get £5 back. Won’t be a bad damage limitation if Oxford can’t get the job done for us. The market is currently priced at 2.13, but it should be closer to 1.9.
BET: Oxford -.25 at 2.13 (Asian Handicap)
| Oxford Win: | +£11.30 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Portsmouth Win: | -£10.00 |
Blackburn v Plymouth
Yeah, despite the heriocs you witnessed in the FA Cup on the weekend; Plymouth are not good. They have not won a single game away from home this season and have only scored six goals. Although, they are unbeaten in three games… o0o0o0oh. Blackburn must be looking forward to this one, despite their recent home form.
Could backfire (watch it be a 2-2 draw), but the model suggets a price of 1.83. There is our edge.
BET: Blackburn -.75 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Blackburn Win by 2 or more: | +£9.40 |
| Blackburn Win by 1 goal: | +£4.70 |
| Draw/Plymouth Win: | -£10.00 |
Sheffield Wednesday v Coventry City
I think I mentioned it in a previous article, Coventry should be second in the table according to the expected points table. They are currently tenth, but their recent form is helping them realise their expected values. They travel to Sheffield who are doing ok and unbeaten in their last five home games.
For some reason my model says the price for this handicap should be 1.6, so I will place this potential edge on the slip.
BET: Coventry +.25 at 1.87 (Asian Handicap)
| Coventry Win: | +£8.70 |
| Draw: | +£4.35 |
| Sheffield Wednesday Win: | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
FRIDAY
Augsburg v RB Leipzig
Leipzig have been unable to break Augsburg in their last three visits, drawing all (2-2, 3-3, 1-1). They also have only just won once in their last seven away matches in the league. Augsburg are unbeaten in their last four.
Model is pricing this at 1.98, small edge but could be a good one.
BET: Augsburg +.25 at 2.04 (Asian Handicap)
| Augsburg Win: | +£10.40 |
| Draw: | +£5.20 |
| RB Leipzig Win: | -£10.00 |
SATURDAY
Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
I will be watching this one, it will be a huge game. Leverkusen need to win to close down Bayern’s lead at the top of the table from eight to five points. Bayern could really make the title safer with a win themselves.. however…
Bayern Munich have not won a match against Leverkusen in all competitions since Xabi Alonso took charge of Die Werkself. (D2 L3, agg score: Leverkusen 9:4 Bayern Munich). Both teams are in good form so there isn’t much to go off in recent results.
The model completely agrees with the market price. No edge here, just a “smartly” priced bet.
BET: Leverkusen +.25 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Leverkusen Win: | +£9.30 |
| Draw: | +£4.65 |
| Bayern Munich Win: | -£10.00 |
La Liga
SATURDAY
Osasuna v Real Madrid
FEEL FREE NOT TO DO THIS ONE, but I find it a fun one to wager. This bet could be a model discrepancy, because the odds my model suggests is much lower than I would’ve predicted at 1.64 (61.3% probability). Even the market has it priced below evens, so there must be something there.
BET: Osasuna +1 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| Osasuna Win/Draw: | +£9.10 |
| Real Madrid Win by 1 goal: | £0.00 |
| Real Madrid Win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
Atletico Madrid v Celta Viga
The model prices this one just slightly under the markets at 1.99 for a slight edge, but this bet also feels a bit routine. Atletico have not lost to Celta Vigo in the league since 2007 (twelve matches: W9, D3).
The away side will do well to get a point here, so I feel confident in saying I won’t lose my full stake here, it’s a matter of whether Atletico win by one goal or two plus.
BET: Atletico -1.25 at 2.03 (Asian Handicap)
| Atletico Win by 2 or more goals: | +£10.30 |
| Atletico Win by 1 goal: | -£5.00 |
| Draw/Celta Vigo Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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