Results from the Weekend
Oh yes, what a great weekend! 75% of my bets came in, returning a lovely +£45.25 profit! The weekend started well with a resounding victory for Brighton over Chelsea, my confidence wasn’t high on that one but once again my model has seen something I couldn’t.
Very pleased with my Wolves +2.0 bet. There wasn’t a big edge on it, so I had to back it up when researching and I did. Liverpool can count their lucky stars though, Wolves probably deserved a draw in this game. The league leaders failed to have a single shot in the second half… at Anfield.
Well looky here, the Osasuna +1 came in.. you know, the one I listed saying “FEEL FREE NOT TO DO THIS ONE”. Bellingham’s mouth may have played a part in this one too, being sent off for dissent at the end of the first half while they were 1-0 up. Osasuna equalised with a penalty in the second half and maybe could’ve won.. creating another 1.10 non-penalty xG. They won the match on xG (1.88 – 1.38).
Forest were disappointing, particularly when it looked a nailed on bet, Fulham have done the double over them now this season.. and made sure of it too. 24 shots, 10 on target. 2.18-0.42 was the final xG score (2-1 actual score). Another Everton bet wins! I think I’ve made more money on them than any other team so far. (quick check.. 3 wins out of 3 (£30))
I had a half win with the Leverkusen v Bayern match. While it was a win I was still disappointed with it.. Leverkusen really should have won that game. Even in the final minuntes, I watched Wirtz miss an absolute sitter. Count this one unlucky to not have won the full £9.30, as the home side won 2.16 – 0.05 on xG. Bayern only had two shots. Neither on target.
I’m now up +£82.35, from 32 bets, winning 20 (63%). ROI is currently 25%! After a great weekend, it’s only reasonable for me to expect a downturn this the following bets below. If we have another good weekend, brilliant! But I’m expecting some minus’ here (wrote this before doing any bet analysis).
Profit / Loss from 14/02/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton v Chelsea | Brighton +.25 | 1.9 | 10.00 | +£9.00 |
| Augsburg v RB Leipzig | Augsburg +.25 | 2.04 | 10.00 | +£5.20 |
| Oxford v Portsmouth | Oxford -.25 | 2.13 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Blackburn v Plymouth | Blackburn -.75 | 1.94 | 10.00 | +£9.40 |
| Sheff Wed v Coventry | Coventry +.25 | 1.87 | 10.00 | +£8.70 |
| Fulham v Nottm Forest | Forest +.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| West Ham v Brentford | Brentford +.25 | 1.85 | 10.00 | +£8.50 |
| Crystal Palace v Everton | Everton +.5 | 2.07 | 10.00 | +£10.70 |
| Osasuna v Real Madrid | Osasuna +1 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +£9.10 |
| Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo | Atletico -1.25 | 2.03 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Leverkusen v Bayern Munich | Leverkusen +.25 | 1.93 | 10.00 | +£4.65 |
| Liverpool v Wolves | Wolves +2 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | +£45.25 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£82.35 |
Premier League
FRIDAY
Leicester City v Brentford
Brentford, as predicted, are picking up away wins now. You could say they’ve turned a corner, but the reality is they have a much easier fixture run away from home now compared to so far. This Friday they are travelling to Leicester who have not scored at home in six matches. They haven’t won at home for seven. They have only one win in eleven, home and away. Not to be Ruud, it’s not a good time of the season to be a Foxes fan.
The market has given a Brentford win a price of 2.08, which is higher than I thought it might be. My model agrees with me, it suggests a price of 1.72 (58% probability). They are favourites, and they should be.
BET: Brentford to Win at 2.08
| Brentford Win: | +£10.80 |
| Leicester/Draw: | -£10.00 |
SATURDAY
Everton v Manchester United
Can we get four wins from four bets on Everton? They’re priced at 1.84 to win (or draw = stake return), but my model says it should be 1.55! My model LOVES Everton, and I’m glad it does because they’ve been bringing in the wins.
Everton have just overtaken United in the league and are in form. Four wins and a draw in their last five matches. United however, who seem to get more depressing to watch every week, two wins in five. Moyes to get some payback against United here.
BET: Everton 0 at 1.84 (Asian Handicap)
| Everton Win: | +£8.40 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Manchester United Win: | -£10.00 |
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Oohhh a very interesting tie taking place here… said nobody ever. Last weekend I bet against Palace in favour of Everton, but this time I will bet in their favour. They have been… really great away from home for results. They haven’t lost on the road since a 1-0 loss to Forest on the 21st October (eight away matches), and have won five of their last six away.
Fulham ended their win drought at home with a 2-1 victory over high-flying Forest. They have drawn four of their last six home matches, and have not beaten Palace at home in their last five attempts (three draws, two Palace wins).
Palace are priced in favour by the bookies at 1.85 which, backed up by my little analysis, seems fair. My model suggests it should be even lower at 1.65. Fully expecting a Glasnerball masterclass.
BET: Crystal Palace +.5 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)
| Crystal Palace Win/Draw: | +£8.50 |
| Fulham Win: | -£10.00 |
Ipswich v Tottenham
Goodness me, I’m betting on Spurs to win. This feels incredibly wrong, especially this season. However the odds on them winning feel incredibly generous to ignore. My model believes this line is incorrect and should be 1.75.
Ipswich have only won once at home this season, a suprising win against Chelsea. Other than that they’ve really struggled to get any points at home since November. They’re on their way down, and Spurs could do with dispatching a relegation rival closer to their destiny…
Spurs don’t draw away apparently. Just the once. They either win or lose. Well, they’ve mostly lost to be honest. Just four wins in their twelve away games this season. I feel sick betting on them to win here, I have to trust the model. Hey, they could be boosted by their drab win against Man United. Maddison to score.
BET: Tottenham to Win at 2.04
| Tottenham Win: | +£10.40 |
| Draw/Ipswich Win: | -£10.00 |
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Villa have a decent record at home this season, losing just once. And it was their first home match of the season, 2-0 loss to Arsenal. Since then they have won six and drawn seven, including their midweek draw to leaders Liverpool.
Chelsea have spiralled recently. They were doing great at the start of this season, to the point where people asked the question regarding if they were involved in the title race. Since then they’ve swiftly dropped down to sixth, with no wins in any of their last five away matches where they scored just twice from 6.7 xG (conceded nine from 7.3). They’ve lost their way in putting the ball in the net.
Villa are priced nicely here, because my model believes it should be 1.6 (65% probability). Can’t turn a blind eye to that gulf of an edge.
BET: Aston Villa 0 at 2.11 (Asian Handicap)
| Aston Villa Win: | +£11.10 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Chelsea Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
Manchester City v Liverpool
How could I not look at this game? I’m fully expecting this one to lose, because Liverpool are winning this title by calmly getting through every game. But as always I will back up my model with other information.
Liverpool have not won at the Etihad since 2015, when Pellegrini was City manager. The eight matches after that have been split between City winning and a draw (four City wins, four draws)
Man City have won their last three home matches to an aggregate score of 11-2. They have started to find the net again. Liverpool haven’t lost away from home yet this season, but they have had to settle for some draws. AND.. they are conceding more goals recently. They looked rather shaky in the second half against Wolves last weekend, and they weren’t at their best against Villa.
The market has this line priced in favour at 1.86, but my model suggests it should be far lower at 1.57. This is likely because the City in the model is far stronger than the current one we’re seeing this season. But they are looking a bit stronger in their last few matches, they could snatch a draw here. A win would be PERFECT.
BET: Man City +.25 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)
| Man City Win: | +£8.60 |
| Draw: | +£4.30 |
| Liverpool Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
SATURDAY
Plymouth v Cardiff City
Don’t have to ask me twice to make this bet. Cardiff have only one win away all season, and Plymouth are working on turning around their campaign. They should be priced at 1.84.
BET: Plymouth 0 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)
| Plymouth Win: | +£10.20 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Cardiff Win: | -£10.00 |
West Brom v Oxford City
Another week, another bet involving Oxford. Yeah, they should lose this one. West Brom are strong at home, and they should improve on their recent loss to Portsmouth. Oxford have just the one win away all season and have only created 2.8 xG in their last five away combined. West Brom.. 8.0.
Market is priced at 1.91, model says 1.83. It’s not far off, I’ll back it.
BET: West Brom -.75 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| West Brom Win by 2 or more goals: | +£9.10 |
| West Brom Win by 1 goal: | +£4.55 |
| Draw/Oxford Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
Watford v Luton
Watford need this game. They’ve failed to record any points in their last five home matches, losing all. This weekend they’re hosting the side they’d probably want to face the most in the league right now to end that run. Luton are heading towards back to back relegations (sad face), and have only won once away from home this season.
Interesting xG stat though.. both sides have scored and conceded the same amount of xG & xGA in their last home/away fixtures. (4.1 – 9.3, or 0.82 – 1.86 per game). Fully expect Watford to get a result here despite their recent home form. And to be fair to them, two of their recent matches at home were against Leeds and Sheffield United. I think I’m right in saying Bayo is back this weekend too?
Model has priced this one at 1.61, but the market is over evens…
BET: Watford -.25 at 2.08 (Asian Handicap)
| Watford Win: | +£10.80 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Luton Win: | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
SATURDAY
Dortmund v Union Berlin
This one feels risky, even if Dortmund are having a hard time of it this season. They are winless in their last five home matches, and only have two wins in their last eleven. Union Berlin only have two wins in their eleven away matches.
Union won the reverse fixture, but haven’t won at the Signal Iduna Park in their last five visits, losing all of them. Neither side are showing any decent form. This could be a draw. I hope it’s a draw. Dortmund are favourites to win which is fine, just as long as it’s not by 2 or more goals, we’ll be ok.
BET: Union Berlin +1 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| Union Berlin Win/Draw: | +£9.90 |
| Dortmund Win by 1 goal: | +£0.00 |
| Dortmund Win by 2 goals: | -£10.00 |
La Liga
FRIDAY
Celta Vigo v Osasuna
Both these sides are home playing teams. Neither are winning away this season. Luckily for Celta Vigo, they’re the ones at home! Celta have only failed to win at home this season five times; Atletico Madrid (L), Girona (D), Real Madrid (L), Barcelona (D), Athletic Bilbao (L).
I mean, all five of those teams completed the top five spots last season in the league (same again this season, except Girona.. who are tenth). To be winning against everyone else is pretty decent.
Market has them to win at 1.93, model suggests 1.83. It even suggests Osasuna has an 18% chance of winning. We’ll take this one, cmon sky blues.
BET: Celta Vigo to Win at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Celta Vigo Win: | +£9.30 |
| Draw/Osasuna Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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