Results from the Weekend
Beautiful stuff. Felt confident about some of these bets again but was sure I’d take a hit after last weekends profit. Well, instead I managed to do even better! Very happy, hard work paying off so far. Desperate to hit 100 bets to see where I’m at. So far I’m up +£132.35 from 43 bets (27 wins!)
The weekend started stong. Brentford to win was priced really generously by the exchanges, I couldn’t see Leicester scoring let alone grabbing a point. Brentford keep winning away at the moment. Celta Vigo followed nicely on the same evening.
Everton were 2-0 against United, but let the game fall away from them in the 2nd half which was disappointing. But I didn’t lose anything on that one due to a stake return on a draw (although I think Everton should’ve had a penalty given in the final minute, VAR overturned one. Unlucky there).
Plymouth were poor against Cardiff. The away side dominated the first half, leading 1-0 at the break. If it wasn’t for a red card to the Blues’ Goutas early in the 2nd half, I don’t think they would’ve got themselves back into this game (harsh red, but I understand why). Fortunate one, but they managed to get a draw.
I will give Palace a lot of praise, because they deserve it. I did also call it, just wish the odds had been higher. Another away win for them. Spurs demolished Ipswich at interesting odds too. The market got this wrong, they should’ve been stronger favourites. West Brom snatched a final minute goal to make it 2-0 which increased the profit for that match! Lovely.
Villa left it late against Chelsea too! Two January attackers doing the job (see, Arsenal? Do you SEE? Look at what you’re missing. Rashford was right there). Chelsea failing to finish their dinner again, xG suggested a draw.
Now for my funniest result of the weekend, I laughed so much at this one. I bet on Union Berlin to not lose by two goals or more against Dortmund. Dortmund humiliated them 6-0. Ended the run too, was the first loss of the weekend!
Watford got the job done early on against Luton, didn’t even need Bayo! Finally, and I wish I didn’t make the bet as I didn’t feel it to be honest, City lost 2-0 to Liverpool. Fair enough, that’s the title done and dusted! I’ve ended this weekend with a +£50! Seven wins from eleven (two stake returns, two losses).
Again, I’m expecting some sort of loss this time around. But let’s see how we get on with these MIDWEEK GAMES! LET’S GO.
Profit / Loss from 21/02/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester v Brentford | Brentford to Win | 2.08 | 10.00 | +£10.80 |
| Celta Vigo v Osasuna | Celta Vigo to Win | 1.93 | 10.00 | +£9.30 |
| Everton v Man United | Everton 0 | 1.84 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Plymouth v Cardiff | Plymouth 0 | 2.02 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | Palace +.5 | 1.85 | 10.00 | +£8.50 |
| Ipswich v Spurs | Spurs to Win | 2.04 | 10.00 | +£10.40 |
| West Brom v Oxford | West Brom -.75 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +£9.10 |
| Aston Villa v Chelsea | Aston Villa 0 | 2.11 | 10.00 | +£11.10 |
| Dortmund v Union Berlin | Union Berlin +1 | 1.99 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Watford v Luton | Watford -.25 | 2.08 | 10.00 | +£10.80 |
| Man City v Liverpool | Man City +.25 | 1.86 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | +£50.00 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£132.35 |
Premier League
TUESDAY
WOLVES V FULHAM
This week I’m backing Fulham! They’re much better away from home it seems this season, having only failing to score once in all away games. They’ve scored two goals in each of their last five away matches from a total xG of 8.3 (10 goals). Another mean stat for Fulham; they’ve only failed to create 1.0 xG or more twice this season away from home, and those were the first two trips of the season.
Wolves however… just three wins at home, drawing just once. That’s ten points from a possible thirty-six. They are scoring though. Could be a draw. Only caveat for this one is that Fulham have not won at the Molineux in YEARS.
Market has this one marked up at 1.9. Model suggests 1.62 (68% probability).
BET: Fulham O at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Fulham Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Wolves Win: | -£10.00 |
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
My confidence level is low on this one, but my model sees something so I will trust it which I have learnt to do recently! At Selhurst these two teams have not drawn against each other in any of their last eight matches, with Palace winning six. In terms of recent form it’s a strange one to make a bet. If it’s a draw I’ll get my stake back.
Palace have only won at home twice this season… really? They lost their last two, against Everton and Brentford. Looking at the recent xG I can see why the model has suggested this one. Villa have created 3.3 xG in their last five away games, conceding 8.4. Palace in their last five at home have created 7.4, conceding 6.8.
Without the models help, I wouldn’t have taken a look at this one. Market price is 1.91, model suggests 1.56 (64% probability). More Glasnerball please.
BET: Crystal Palace O at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| Palace Win: | +£9.10 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Aston Villa Win: | -£10.00 |
BRIGHTON V BOURNEMOUTH
Interesting matchup here. Bournemouth are flying away from home at the moment, unlike the Seagulls at home. Just four wins at home all season for Brighton, and just an xG difference of +0.4 in their last five home matches. Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last seven away, and have only lost three times on the road.
The Cherries have scored fourteen goals in their last five away matches from an xG of 8, conceding six from 7.4. They’re in a good place and doing well this season, just need to concede less. As I have mentioned before, in the expected points table they should be 3rd with 45 points. They currently lie 6th with 43. They’re where they’re expected to be points wise.
Market has this one priced at 2.05 which looks wrong. My model says 1.79.
BET: Bournemouth +.25 at 2.05 (Asian Handicap)
| Bournemouth Win: | +£10.50 |
| Draw: | +£5.25 |
| Brighton Win: | -£10.00 |
WEDNESDAY
NOTT’M FOREST V ARSENAL
Euuuuuuuugghhhhhhhhhhh. I’m betting on an Arsenal match which I don’t want to do. I’m also betting on them not to win, which I don’t want to do. On the plus side, if this bet loses then I will be happy because it’s a really tough fixture and Arsenal are not in a good place in attack.
Forest have only failed to score once at home this season, and in their last home match they put Brighton to sword scoring seven times. They’ve also only lost twice at home. Their xG conceded is pretty decent too. Exluding the Liverpool match (2.0 xGA), they’ve conceded less that 1.0 xG in each of their last five home matches. I’m not looking forward to watching this one.
Arsenal are still putting out good xG numbers away from home but I don’t have the confidence in their attack at the moment. They struggled against Leicester, despite winning 2-0 in the end (both goals in the last ten minutes), and they’ve just lost at home to West Ham without scoring. Playing a DM up top isn’t the answer, especially against one of the best defences in the league this season in Forest.
I’m expecting a fast start from Forest, Arsenal could be rattled by half time. The market has this one priced at 1.93, but my model suggests… 1.53. I don’t want to watch. Weird to say this, but I hope this bet loses. I don’t think it will though.
BET: Nott’m Forest +.5 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Nott’m Forest Win/Draw: | +£9.40 |
| Arsenal Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
TUESDAY
CARDIFF CITY V HULL CITY
Both sides are in decent form home and away. Cardiff haven’t lost in their last five home matches, and Hull have won four of their last five away trips. Hull have also won their last three trips to Cardiff. In fact, Cardiff have not beaten Hull in their last seven meetings home/away. No draws between these two in the last nine matches at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Interesting line this one. Hull are the better team, form wise and expected points wise. The market has this priced generously at 2.15! Model says 1.57! What an edge.
BET: Hull O at 2.15 (Asian Handicap)
| Hull Win: | +£11.50 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Cardiff Win: | -£10.00 |
STOKE CITY V MIDDLESBROUGH
Honestly, feel free to skip this one. I’m purely following the model here because it’s chucked up a brilliant edge. If you’re brave, stick this one on. The bet makes sense if it wasn’t for the recent form of Middlesbrough
They’ve failed to score any points in their last four matches away, losing all of them. Probably unlucky in two of those games to be fair, the xG scores were massively in their favour in their defeats to Preston and Portsmouth.
Stoke have only lost once at home in their last five matches, but have been lucky considering their xG scores. In those matches they scored four goals from 3.4 xG, conceding just the one goal from 6.3 xG against. The form should look different. Maybe the model is onto something here.
This one is priced at 1.97, but my model says it should be 1.68. We get half of our stake back if their is a draw. Best of luck!
BET: Middlesbrough -.25 at 1.97 (Asian Handicap)
| Middlesbrough Win: | +£9.70 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Stoke Win: | -£10.00 |
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