Results from the Weekday matches
Bittersweet end for this batch of bets for me with Arsenal failing to score again. Two games, zero goals. Positive side is that it confirmed my latest of batch of bets to be in profit for the fourth article in a row. Glasnerball returned again, this time to smash Aston Villa 4-1! I had a great edge on that one, very pleased. The market looked way off and it turned out to be that way.
The Fulham bet was another with a good edge, and it paid off. Middlesbrough got the job done without much fuss, unlike Hull who were abysmal against Cardiff. Was a frustrating watch that game, they didn’t have a shot in the second half until the 84th minute. Brighton snatched a win thanks to dat guy, but it didn’t do my bet any favours.
And lastly, as I predicted, Arsenal failed to win against Forest. Was in a weird place before the match where I realised I would either profit again this week with +17.20 or lose -2.20. Unsure how Arsenal can turn these matches into wins without a functioning attacking three, Merino up top isn’t working and is not a solution. Would like to see a call up from the ranks to go up top in the meantime, can’t be any worse. Forest defended well, but to be honest they should’ve attacked Arsenal more.
Before I move on I just want to share how things are going so far. I’m quite proud but also aware it’s still early doors. I’ve made 49 bets, and won 31 (strike rate = 63.3%). I’ve staked a total of £490, and made a return of +£149.55 (ROI = 30.5%).
The last four set of bets have boosted my profit by a total of +£126.95. It would take a really unfortunate run of fifteen losing bets to ping back down to a break even point. Not getting ahead of myself, but I’ve only lost fourteen bets so far..
Profit / Loss from 25/02/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves v Fulham | Fulham 0 | 1.9 | 10.00 | +£9.00 |
| Crystal Palace v Aston Villa | Palace 0 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +£9.10 |
| Brighton v Bournemouth | Bournemouth +.25 | 2.05 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Cardiff v Hull | Hull 0 | 2.15 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Stoke v Middlesbrough | Middlesbrough -.25 | 1.97 | 10.00 | +£9.70 |
| Nott’m Forest v Arsenal | Forest +.5 | 1.94 | 10.00 | +£9.40 |
| Total P/L: | +£17.20 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£149.55 |
Okay, this is fun. Let’s do some more. I keep expecting to lose. Again, I feel it’ll be this weekend as there are no Premier League matches which is probably my main expertise.
Championship
FRIDAY
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY V SUNDERLAND
Sunderland come into this match with a mixed away form, two wins in their last five trips. Looking at the xG data, they probably should’ve won four of their last five (lost to Stoke 1-0 but won 0.8-2.0 on xG, draw to Burnley 0-0 but won 0.7-2.8 on xG. That’s about five expected goals not scored).
Sheffield have a similar xG form. While they have just the one win in their last five home matches, they’ve failed to win in their last four. They should have beaten Luton in their 1-1 draw, they won that one on xG by 2.7-0.4. Probably unfortunate to have lost to Coventry too.
Sunderland won the reverse fixture 4-0, and the market is in their favour of winning again. The market has this one priced at 1.82, model suggests 1.72. Would have hoped for a higher market price.
BET: Sunderland 0 at 1.82 (Asian Handicap)
| Sunderland Win: | +£8.20 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Sheffield Weds Win: | -£10.00 |
SATURDAY
BLACKBURN V NORWICH
Blackburn don’t seem to be a fan of drawing matches at home this season, it’s either win or bust. They’ve won three of their last five home matches and have a positive xG difference for those matches at +1.6. Norwich however have -1.4, and have conceded five goals in their last five away matches.
Just four wins away from home all season for the Canaries, the balance slightly tips in Blackburns favour. However, they haven’t lost in their travels to Ewood Park for six matches. Blackburn also have a new head coach in Ismael, which makes this a harder match to predict due to not really knowing what to expect..
I will go through with this one, feel free to not. The market is priced at 1.9, but my model suggests 1.65 is more appropriate. But my model doesn’t know about manager changes. The data is in Blackburns favour, I’m hoping their have a manager bounce in this game too.
BET: Blackburn 0 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Blackburn Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Norwich Win: | -£10.00 |
OXFORD V COVENTRY
Oxford have had a decent form at home recently, with four wins and a draw in their last six home matches. However those three of those four wins were against teams they’re battling with against relegation. They’re hosting a Coventry side who, as I keep mentioning, should be 2nd in the league when comparing to the expected points table.
Three away wins on the bounce for Coventry, they come into this with an xG difference of +3.0 from their last five away matches. Oxford have +1.4. The market has this one price higher than EVES at 2.08, my model suggests 1.98..
BET: Coventry -.5 at 2.08 (Asian Handicap)
| Coventry Win: | +£10.80 |
| Oxford Win/Draw: | -£10.00 |
LUTON V PORTSMOUTH
Oh jeez, this one feels risky and I don’t like it one bit. My model has thrown this one onto me. The current price for a Luton win is 2.3, but my model prefers a price around 1.7. It also gives Portsmouth a 19.3% chance of winning this match.
Then, I go and do my research. Luton haven’t won a home match in their last five, three losses and two draws. xG wise they probably should’ve won twice. Portsmouth won their last away match against Oxford United, but it was their 2nd away win all season. They’ve only scored five goals in their last eight away matches. Eh, Luton have scored six at home in the same period.
Luton ahead at the moment on xG form, but it still feels risky. Don’t let me down please model. It’s an insane edge, I hope it comes off. Just before finishing this one I just wanted to point out that Luton should be 15th in the league when looking at the expected points table. They’ve lost out on fifteen points in games they probably lost/drew.
BET: Luton to Win at 2.3
| Luton Win: | +£13.00 |
| Draw/Portsmouth Win: | -£10.00 |
Serie A
THURSDAY
BOLOGNA V MILAN
This match feels like Bologna’s best chance of beating Milan for the first time since Jan 2016. Milan have had a patchy away form this season while Bologna have only lost twice. They’ve scored twelve goals from 9.8 xG in their last five home matches, conceding eight from 4.2 xGA. Their 3-2 defeat to Hellas Verona has distorted their goals conceded there, Verona created only 0.8 xG that match.
Milan seem hit and miss on the road, but they do have three wins in their last five away matches. Probably should have four… they just lot 2-1 away to Torino but won the match on xG at 0.3-2.4. I would feel more confident in this bet if Bologna had won more matches in the head to heads between these two sides, but it’s all in Milan’s favour (26 matches, Milan Wins: 18, Draws: 7, Bologna Wins: 1).
The market has Bologna priced at 2.02, but my model suggests 1.87 is more in line.
BET: Bologna 0 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)
| Bologna Win: | +£10.20 |
| Draw/Milan Win: | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
SATURDAY
LEIPZIG V MAINZ
Leipzig have only lost at home once this season which was back in November. Since then the’ve won three and drawn twice, scoring twelve goals from an xG of 8.2 (2.4 goals per game). They look in good shape going into this match.
Mainz have drawn just the once away this season and their four wins have been either fortunate (3-2 against Augsburg [lost 2.4-1.0 on xG], 3-1 win against Frankfurt [lost 2.4-0.6 on xG]), or against sides at the bottom of the table (Holstein Kiel & Heidenheim).
Leipzig would go above Mainz in the table with a win here. My model suggests a price of 1.70, and the market has priced this at 1.98.
BET: Leipzig to Win at 1.98
| Leipzig Win: | +£9.80 |
| Draw/Mainz Win: | -£10.00 |
FRANKFURT V LEVERKUSEN
Might give this match a watch. The last five fixtures between these two have averaged 3.8 goals per game. Frankfurt have lost just once at home this season and Leverkusen haven’t lost away. There isn’t much to seperate these sides on recent xG either. Both creating and defending rather well. The model is leaning on a Frankfurt Win/Draw at odds of 1.84, when the market suggests a price of 1.97.
BET: Eintracht Frankfurt +.75 at 1.97 (Asian Handicap)
| Frankfurt Win/Draw: | +£9.70 |
| Leverkusen Win by 1 Goal: | -£5.00 |
| Leverkusen Win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
La Liga
SATURDAY
GIRONA V CELTA VIGO
Both sides are matched up okay on the xG forms, and both scoring home and away respectively. The model has thrown out a suggested price of 1.57 for this line, whereas the market is currently priced at 1.94. Looking at the table it’s hard to see why there is such a gulf of an edge, but then you look at Celta Vigo’s away form this season…
Just the one win away from home for Celta Vigo, and that was back in October. Girona’s form has been patchy this season but they have a good chance here. They’ve only drawn once at home this season, they’ve been either winning or losing. Model might be leaning on this one due to Girona’s decent season last year, but they’ve not been too great this season in comparison.
BET: Girona -.25 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Girona Win: | +£9.40 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Celta Vigo Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
OSASUNA V VALENCIA
Valencia haven’t won away from home this season, and have created an average of 0.9 xG per away match while conceding 1.8 xGA. Osasuna haven’t failed to score at home this season, although they have only won once in their last six home matches (four draws, one loss).
Another big edge on this one. Market priced at 1.96, but my model suggests a neater price at 1.49 (67% probability).
BET: Osasuna -.25 at 1.96 (Asian Handicap)
| Osasuna Win: | +£9.60 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Valencia Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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