Results from the Weekend
I asked Mikel to not let me down, and he did. And interesting weekend this time round which did result in a loss of -£15.05, the most I’ve lost so far. I have been waiting for a loss for a few weeks now so it feels okay, although the manner of it has been disapointing. Milan won their game which led to their bet winning, but they conceded two goals from 0.87 xG.. in return the bet only half won.
Norwich started the weekend on a low note when they failed to beat Oxford at home, and they probably should have too. A day later in the same league, Plymouth fell apart at home against Wednesday. Sometimes it goes like that, even if it makes sense before hand.
Brighton decided to score a late late late penalty (98th minute…) to steal a win against Fulham in an even xG tie. This led to that bet go from winning to then suddenly lost. Celta Vigo won but didn’t perform great. Only won by one goal thus stake returned.
To top the weekend off, Everton failed to win against Wolves in a match they really deserved to. And Arsenal just can’t guarentee goals without their first choice attacking front three, they drew to United 1-1. Despite all that, there were some wins..
Forest finished off a lovely performance against City with a late goal to win 1-0, a goal which secured a Forest Win or Draw bet. Millwall came back to turn around their match against Watford to win that one, and Milan did eventually win against Lecce in similar fashion.. although they were 2-0 down.
Every article I average about 2-3 losses. This weekend I’ve totaled four, which is fine. They’re a part of this too, and we should expect them to occur. I’m more disappointed in the three stake returns. More championship matches in the midweek, let’s hope for some better returns again.
Profit / Loss from 07/03/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich v Oxford | Norwich -1 | 2.04 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Nott’m Forest v Man City | Forest +.5 | 2.02 | 10.00 | +£10.20 |
| Watford v Millwall | Millwall +.25 | 1.92 | 10.00 | +£9.20 |
| Celta Vigo v Leganes | Celta Vigo -1 | 2.05 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Brighton v Fulham | Fulham +.5 | 1.93 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Plymouth v Sheff Wed | Plymouth +.5 | 1.9 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Lecce v Milan | Milan -.75 | 2.11 | 10.00 | +£5.55 |
| Freiburg v RB Leipzig | Freiburg 0 | 1.92 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Wolves v Everton | Everton 0 | 2.11 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Man United v Arsenal | Arsenal -.75 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£15.05 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£156.90 |
Championship
TUESDAY
NORWICH V SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY
Another bet on Norwich.. they should have beaten Oxford on the weekend to be honest, I will count that bet unlucky. They’re hosting Wednedsay who won last time our against Plymouth but haven’t won back to back matches since December. Again, they could throw this all to pot.
Norwich are unbeaten against Wednesday at Carrow Road since 2009 (six matches, years make it sound more dramatic). Feels a slight risk this bet as the market has priced this one at 2.32 (43% probability), but my model suggests a price of 1.83 to be more accurate (54.6%). We’ll see.
BET: Norwich to Win at 2.32 (Asian Handicap)
| Norwich Win: | +£13.20 |
| Draw/Sheffield Wednesday Win: | -£10.00 |
WEDNESDAY
Hull v Oxford United
I can’t see Oxford winning at this canter, but maybe snatching a draw which makes me slightly nervous. Neither side have been particularly great form wise, with Oxford failing to win any of their last seven away matches and Hull winning just twice in the same period at home.
However, there are underlying numbers that feature in this selection. Oxford probably should’ve lost two matches which they drew in those last seven away matches, they created very low xG compared to the amount they conceded. Their xG difference in their last five away matches is -4.6, whereas Hull’s at home recently is +2.7.
Hull are currently underperforming their expected points by fifteen points. We should probably expect some return at some point for them. Market has this one priced at 2.1, model suggests 1.94.
BET: Hull -.75 at 2.01 (Asian Handicap)
| Hull Win by 2 or more: | +£10.10 |
| Hull Win by 1 goal: | +£5.05 |
| Draw/Oxford Win | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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