SATURDAY

EVERTON V WEST HAM

Everton can count themselves a bit unfortunate to not win in their last home match against United where they lost their 2-0 lead and drew 2-2. They should’ve had a penalty in the final minute too. All ifs and maybes, they should work harder to hold their lead next time. Their xG conceded has been great since Moyes took over, averaging 0.7 xGA per game.

West Ham have scored one goal in each of their last seven away matches so you can probably assume they will again here, but Everton might just have the edge. They’ve scored eleven goals in their last four home matches, from an xG of 8.0. The visitors won the previous match at Goodison Park 1-3, but probably shouldn’t have (2.73-1.87 xG score). Not that this matters at all, but it could still be in the minds of the players who played that day.

Everton’s last five home xG difference (what a mouthful): +4.4, compared to West Ham’s away: -0.3. The market has this priced at 1.88, my model suggests 1.77. Still yet to lose money on an Everton bet, watch this one lose.

BET: Everton -.25 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)

IPSWICH V NOTT FOREST

These two sides played out a really dry 1-1 match last week in the FA Cup, although both sides had slightly rotated. Although they won the match on penalties, I will assume Forest will look to amend that ninty minute result with a positive result here as they continue to push for European football.

The hosts have earned just three points from a possible twenty-four in their last eight home matches (one win, seven defeats). Forest come into this match off the back of three consecutive away defeats. Sounsd bad but consider their opposition.. away at Bournemouth, Fulham, and Newcastle (all xGD positive sides).

Market has priced Forest at 2.1 which I find slightly high. My model prefers 1.94.

BET: Forest to Win at 2.1

SOUTHAMPTON V WOLVES

The Saints go marching into the Championship, and Wolves should profit against them here.. although they are missing their talisman in Cunha. I don’t believe he will be as big of a miss here as he will be in their next few games though.

Southampton have conceded 2.8 xG per game this season at home which lines up perfectly with the average goals they’ve conceded (2.84). They’ve only kept one clean sheet in those matches too, and it was their only win at home this season (1-0 vs Everton).

Wolves’ have only won three matches away this season, and even lost the reverse fixture here at home earlier. However they’re scoring and creating chances still. Neither side draw often, and Southampton are winning less than Wolves. The Saint’s xG difference in their last five home matches: -10.7 (absolutely battered), Wolves’ away: -3.4.

Market is priced at 2.1… my model suggests… 1.56?? That’s an edge alright (if they can do the business without Cunha!). I suspect this price may shorten by Saturday once the punters have a flutter.

BET: Wolves to Win at 2.1

BOURNEMOUTH V BRENTFORD

This one feels risky, but after analysing their recent results I’m not sure why. Bournemouth have slightly run cold in recent games having only won once in their last five matches. Brentford however have won their last four away matches, although admittedly against Southampton, Palace (good result tbf), West Ham, and Leicester.

This is priced at almost evens at 1.99, but my model prefers 1.47! I even removed the results from last season to see if the model pricing would fluctuate and it did increase slightly but the edge remained.

Last five xG difference: Bournemouth at home: +0.8, Brentford away: +5.9.

BET: Brentford +.75 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)

ARSENAL V CHELSEA

Oh gosh, not again. I did tell myself when I started this to avoid Arsenal bets as I am a Gunner, but recently their lines have been confused. This bet is a repeat of the one that lost against United on Sunday, but this time they’re at home and against a strange out of form Chelsea. I say out of form.. they’ve won four of their last seven matches, but they were all at home!

Chelsea haven’t won a match on the road since beating Tottenham 4-3 on the 8th December. Since then they’ve lost to Ipswich, Man City, Brighton, and Aston Villa. They’ve conceded eleven goals in their last five away trips from 8.6, while scoring three from 7.8. Palmer has gone cold too, failing to score any goals in his last seven matches from a total xG of 3.4.

The discourse around Arsenal struggling to score recently is slightly overhyped and misguided. They are missing key players in attack which really affects their style of play, it’s less pretty to watch and it’s been that way all season. So many injuries. Despite this they are still creating decent chances, and putting up good xG numbers per game. They’ve only lost once at home this season and it was their last home match against West Ham, which should’ve ended 1-1 according to the xG score. They are yet to be outscored on xG at home this season.

Last five xG difference: Arsenal home: +2.8, Chelsea away: -0.8. The market has this line priced at 2.06, my model suggests a price of 1.63 is more probable? Maybe, I can see this being 2-1/2-0.

BET: Arsenal -.75 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

BLACKBURN V CARDIFF

Another bet involving these two sides, just facing each other this time. I don’t have much to say on this one except Cardiff have only won once away from home this season. The last five xG difference for these sides are: Blackburn home: +1.4, Cardiff away: -7.5.

Still waiting for Blackburn to do anything since Ismael came in, this is a good chance for them to get a positive result. And it’s at home too. The market is priced at 2.02, model suggests 1.79.

BET: Blackburn to Win at 2.10

OXFORD V WATFORD

Like the one above, another bet involving two familiar teams. I feel like all my Championship bets have included these four sides + Coventry. Anyway, Oxford haven’t won in nine games. Watford have a good chance to get a result here against a home side who are currently conceding 2.0 xG on average at home.

Market has this one priced pretty spot on, but it feels like a safe bet to make. My model suggested 1.8.

BET: Watford 0 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

SHEFF. WEDNESDAY V SHEFF. UNITED

Oopmf. United have only lost three away matches all season, and losing just once in their last ten away (Sunderland). Whereas the hosts have only won two matches in their last ten at home. Both sides are scoring goals though, this could be a decent watch.

Market has this priced at 2.11

BET: Sheffield United 0 at 2.11 (Asian Handicap)

FRIDAY

ST PAULI V HOFFENHEIM

The away side have recently been collecting points on the road, winning three of their last five. The two matches they failed to win in those games were against Bayern and Leverkusen. They’ve scored eight goals from an xG of 4.9 too. The hosts have only won two matches at home all season and have created an average of 0.5 xG in their last three at home.

Model suggests a price of 1.76, but the market currently has this priced at 1.98!

BET: Hoffenheim +.25 at 1.98 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

AUGSBURG V WOLFSBURG

Both sides are unbeaten in their last nine matches (both sides lost in their tenth). The hosts will need to improve to get a result at home this weekend as they’ve only scored two goals in their last six home games. Whereas Wolfsburg have scored eight in their last five. Leaning on the away side here, but thankfully the draw stake return exists on this line as a precautionary take.

The market is currently pricing this at 2.09, my model prefers 1.99.

BET: Wolfsurg 0 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)

LAS PALMAS V ALAVES

Las Palmas haven’t won at home in nine matches, with the away side only winning twice in the same period. Could be a dead rubber match this one, but I’m leaning on Alaves to do something. They’ve recently seen their average xG move above their xGA, in theory they should see some positive results coming their way as they realise a run of form. Las Palmas should be bottom of the table according to the expected points.

Model prefers a price of 1.51 on this one. Feel confident on this one, watch it lose.

BET: Alaves 0 at 1.8 (Asian Handicap)

SEVILLA V ATHLETIC BILBAO

The model prefers Bilbao here, so I will trust it. I have no reason not to after looking at the underlying numbers. Sevilla have only won once in their last five at home, while Bilbao have only lost once in eighteen matches. Bilbao’s underlying metrics have been impressive this season. They’re creating around 2.0 xG, while conceding less than 1.0.

They should get a good result here, and this price looks wrong at 1.88. According to the model, it should be 1.65.

BET: Athletic Bilbao 0 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)

ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA

Atletico won’t have been too pleased at going into extra time in the midweek Champions League, especially to then go out on penalties with a VAR intervention. They now have to host one of the hottest sides in Europe this season in Barcelona. However, they’re yet to lose at home this season..

The data is leaning towards Barcelona, especially with Atletico’s xGA average creeping up in the recent weeks, but I am going to trust the model. This bet feels okay, but will probably lose. Model suggests a price of 1.77.

BET: Atletico Madrid +.25 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)

ATALANTA V INTER

I’ve had a decent selection of pick’em bets this weekend (handicap line “0”), and this is another one. Both sides have had a great season, but have very recently his wavy form. Despite that, this is a title challenging match.

Inter could go further ahead at the top of the table this weekend witha win here, Atalanta haven’t beaten Inter at home in their last four attempts. Actually, Atalanta haven’t won at home in their last five home matches this season.

Model prefers a price of 1.63 for Inter.

BET: Inter 0 at 2.03 (Asian Handicap)