SATURDAY

FULHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

This match will be my first venture in trying out how my model fares in the FA Cup fixtures, but I’m treating it like a more competitive PL match. Both sides will put out their best sides possible for this one, and a potential return for Mateta?

Palace haven’t lost in their last nine away matches in the PL, winning six times. They’ve won their last four on the trot. Can’t say the same for Fulham at home, they’ve been patchy at best. Two wins in their last eight at home, including four draws. One of their recent home defeats was a 2-0 loss against Palace..

Palace are also much stronger defensively away from home recently, conceding less than 1.0 xG per game now while creating over 2.0! Fulham are currently creating as much xG as they are conceding.

I’ve always felt that from the quarters to the final you tend to see matches go to extra time more often than not, ran the numbers and was ENTIRELY incorrect. Since 2019, only seven of the forty-six matches between the QF/SF/Finals went into extra time. Doesn’t give much hope of a draw here, Palace to nick this! Mateta with a perfect hattrick 😉

Market has this priced at 1.92, my model prefers 1.78.

BET: Palace +.25 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)

BRIGHTON V NOTT FOREST

Personally I feel like Brighton should be favourites here, but their 7-0 defeat to Forest at the start of Feb might be holding people back from backing them here. Brighton have been unbeaten since that defeat, winning four and drawing once. Despite that, the market is in favour of them not winning in ninty minutes.

Like the match above, I expect both sides to put out full strength XI’s. Forest’s xG numbers haven’t been great recently but that doesn’t seem to matter at all with them this season, they’re overperforming and aren’t showing signs of slowing down.

Brighton have turned over Chelsea, Fulham, and Bournemouth in their last three home matches which makes this bet feel risky. They should be favourites, but the market and model disagree with me. I will trust the model. Market has this priced at 1.86, model suggests 1.59.

BET: Forest +.75 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)

FRIDAY

SHEFFIELD UNITED V COVENTRY CITY

If you were to compare the actual league standings and the expected points version, these two sides swap places. Coventry should be in second place, and they have made moves under Lampard to get there, despite their recent rise in defensive xG numbers.

Coventry were probably unfortunate to lose 2-0 away to Derby, the expected score was pretty even and both scored below 1.0. They’ve actually only lost four matches away from home this season on xG (my model determines a win or loss on xG where a side finish the match with +0.5 difference on xG), their actual loss total is eight. Saying that, Sheffield United have only lost twice at home on xG.. (three actual losses).

I’m not too confident on choosing a winner here so I’m happy to follow the model’s probabilities. Market has this priced at 1.85, model prefers 1.75.

BET: Coventry +.5 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

HULL V LUTON

Just looking at xG results only, Luton have only won once away from home this season (compared to their two actual results). Their xG difference for their last five away matches is -7.2, which isn’t great at all! They’ve summed a total of 2.6 in those five games, which is fair as they’ve actually score three goals, but they’ve shipped ten goals from an xGA of 9.8.

They’ll kick themselves if they don’t win here, Hull. Model has this line priced at 1.62.

BET: Hull -.25 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)

CARDIFF V SHEFFIELD WED

I’ve had issues betting in Cardiff recently, hoping this one can begin to swing the balance with them a bit. Both sides are evenly matches on the underlying numbers, only difference is form. Sheffield Wednesday aren’t collecting draws right now it seems, just wins and losses in their last eight matches.

Not much else to add to this one, purely following the probabilities from my model. Market has this priced at 1.85, model prefers 1.76.

BET: Sheffield Wednesday 0 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)

NORWICH V WEST BROM

The away side here have not won a match away from home since November, since then they’ve drawn seven and lost four. It’s up to Norwich here who have not lost a home match on xG since… also November! Ehh we’ll see, Norwich have let me down recently too.

Model has this lined up at 1.89.

BET: Norwich -.25 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)

FRIDAY

LEVERKUSEN V BOCHUM

I can see why the model has thrown this one up, and I like the difference in odds between the market and my model. My model suggests 1.46 (68.5% probability) is more in price for this line. I don’t have much anaylsis to add to this bet other than the underlying numbers fall in line for this bet. Leverkusen have lost twice this season, and arguably shouldn’t have lost those matches when you consider the xG scores.

Trusting the model here, even if the line on a match win + specific goal difference carries a risk.

BET: Levekusen -1.75 at 1.89 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

FREIBURG V UNION BERLIN

Union Berlin’s defensive xG numbers have flown above 2.0 on average recently, while their attacking numbers are slightly falling. The hosts are in a better place, currently creating more xG than their conceding.

This bet has been chosen purely on the value of the model’s pricing. Market has this one priced at 2.06, model suggests 1.93.

BET: Freiburg to Win at 2.06

SATURDAY

ALAVES V RAYO VALLECANO

This is a weird bet as all the data suggests a move on Alaves, but the model leans on Rayo here. Alaves are really underperforming their underlying numbers this season. They find themselves 17th with 27 points, but they have 39 xPTS. They should be mid table. They’ve won just once in their last five home matches, but on xG they’ve actually won four. They scored two goals from an xG of 6.5 in their last five home games.

Rayo however, ehh. They’re actually in line with their underlying numbers, formwise and season total. They have increased their xG to xGA difference in recent weeks which puts them in a slightly good place for this match.

Market has this priced at 2.0, model suggests 1.82.

BET: Rayo Vallecano +.25 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

VALENCIA V MALLORCA

Another model choice. Valencia have won four of their last five home matches, actually and on xG, however they come into this game with just one win in their last five home+away. Mallorca haven’t lost in six matches, but haven’t won away in four..

Ehh.. can see Valencia winning this one to be honest, and I’d prefer this line to be in their favour but it just isn’t. Model suggests a price of 1.63, much lower than the market’s price, something I can’t ignore.

BET: Mallorca +.25 at 2.14 (Asian Handicap)

BETIS V SEVILLA

Real Betis are on fire at the moment, winning their last five matches (including their last three at home). They’re currently averaging 2.4 xG per game, while conceding 0.8. Sevilla themselves haven’t lost in their last five away games which is probably why this price isn’t below evens. However, Sevilla’s attacking xG numbers have dropped to 0.9 while they’re conceding 1.6 per game (five game rolling average).

My model has Betis priced at 1.84 to win. I can’t ignore it.

BET: Betis to Win at 2.06

MONDAY

CELTA VIGO V LAS PALMAS

Las Palmas haven’t won a match on xG away all season, despite winning three times. They are not in the best of places this season and have an xG difference of -9.7 for their last five matches away from home. Celta Vigo however have an xGD of +1.2 at home in their last five.

This be only wins if Celta Vigo win by two or more goals, something they’ve only managed four times at home this season. They should win this game, so ideally we’re only looking at a money return or a win!

Priced at evens, model prefers 1.86.

BET: Celta Vigo -1 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

NAPOLI V AC MILAN

This could be fun to watch. Both sides are in good form xG wise home and away, however Napoli have just won once in their last seven games. A strange patch of form which has hit them after winning seven straight matches before this rut. Apart from the results, these sides are matched up quite well with the underlying numbers. Probability favours a draw/Milan win here so I will play the numbers.

Priced at evens, model suggests 1.76.

BET: Milan +.5 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)