Results from the Weekend bets
Small loss this weekend in a round of bets which were looking promising half way through, then fell apart with the last five. The match I’m most upset about is Napoli v Milan. Milan lost that one 2-1 but absolutely battered the hosts (0.96 – 2.61 on xG). That’s football. Can’t trust Hull at the moment, or Freiburg.
I’m pleased my Betis bet won as that price was really wrong, it ended up steaming down to 1.82 before kick off which is around the price my model suggested. I would have made £8.20 if I bet at kick off instead of two days earlier at 2.06 which returned £10.60. Both my FA cup bets came in which was pleasing, both felt safe too.
I feel good with my Premier League predictions which is why I made those FA Cup ones. Looking at my spreadsheets I can see that I have made a profit of +£157 on the PL+FA Cup, it’s the other leagues I’m struggling to break right now.
Profit / Loss from 28/03/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen v Bochum | Leverkusen -1.75 | 1.89 | 10.00 | +£4.45 |
| Sheff Utd v Coventry | Coventry +.5 | 1.85 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | Palace +.25 | 1.92 | 10.00 | +£9.20 |
| Hull v Luton | Hull -.25 | 1.94 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Cardiff v Sheff Wed | Sheff Wed 0 | 1.85 | 10.00 | Stake Return |
| Norwich v West Brom | Norwich -.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +£10.00 |
| Brighton v Nott Forest | Forest +.75 | 1.86 | 10.00 | +£8.60 |
| Alaves v Rayo Vallecano | Rayo +.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +£10.00 |
| Freiburg v Union Berlin | Freiburg to Win | 2.06 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Valencia v Mallorca | Mallorca +.25 | 2.14 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Betis v Sevilla | Betis to Win | 2.06 | 10.00 | +£10.60 |
| Napoli v Milan | Milan +.5 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Celta Vigo v Las Palmas | Celta Vigo -1 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£7.15 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£157.20 |
Premier League
TUESDAY
NOTT FOREST V MANCHESTER UNITED
This one could be a risk due to Forest missing Wood due to injury, but I think they’re good enough to overcome United here without him. They haven’t lost at home since November, have won six from eight at home since that defeat. United are conceding 1.9 xG per game at the moment and are down -4.4 on xG difference in their last five away matches.
Model prices this at 1.83.
BET: Forest -.25 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)
| Forest Win: | +£10.90 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Man United Win: | -£10.00 |
WOLVES V WEST HAM
Slight market misprice here, might be because Cunha isn’t available to play, but Wolves can still strike a threat in front of goal. They’ve only failed to score at home twice this season, while West Ham have only failed to score away from home just once this season. My model suggests both sides have around 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet in this match, and prices this line at 1.79.
BET: Both Teams to Score = YES at 1.93
| Both teams score: | +£9.30 |
| Both teams do not score: | -£10.00 |
WEDNESDAY
BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA
Villa’s away form this season has been really poor, they’ve won twice in their last ten away trips. Brighton have soundly won their last three home matches (on xG too). They’re averaging 2.2 xG per game right now while Villa are conceding 2.3. Model price: 1.94.
BET: Brighton to Win at 2.14 (Asian Handicap)
| Brighton Win: | +£11.40 |
| Draw/Aston Villa Win: | -£10.00 |
SOUTHAMPTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
This is a strange price as the bet feels completely sound. Palace are flying like… well Eagles. Their away form has been really decent as of late, winning their last four 2-0. Even on the weekend they won away at Fulham in the FA Cup 3-0. That’s five clean sheets in a row on the road, alongside 2+ goals. Can’t see Southampton upsetting this one.
BET: Palace -1 at 2.14 (Asian Handicap)
| Palace Win by 2 or more goals: | +£11.40 |
| Palace Win by 1 goal: | £0.00 |
| Draw/Southampton Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
Leave a comment