Results from the Weekday bets
This photo sums up how I feel after these midweek results. Emotionally holding on while the P/L slips down a slope. I haven’t much time to write this article out so apologies if it seems very dashed together. My both teams to score bet didn’t quite go to plan, although probably unlucky as West Ham created 1.34 xg but ultimately failed to score. Forest bet felt secure and was so. Brighton… less said the better, and Palace.. jeez.
Profit / Loss from 01/04/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott Forest v Man Utd | Forest -.25 | 2.09 | 10.00 | +£10.90 |
| Wolves v West Ham | BTTS Yes | 1.93 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Brighton v Aston Villa | Brighton to Win | 2.14 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Southampton v Crystal Palace | Palace -1 | 2.14 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£19.10 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£138.10 |
Premier League
SATURDAY
WEST HAM V BOURNEMOUTH
Bournemouth are in a tricky patch at the moment. Without a win in five, including a suprising 2-1 defeat at home midweek against Ipswich. Their main man, Kluivert, is also out injured. I deliberated on this one for a little while but still decided to bite the bullet. I just don’t trust West Ham this season, I haven’t seen enough from them.
Despite Bournemouth’s no wins in five, the underlying metrics suggest that their form should really say LLWWW instead of LLDLL. They’ve been unlucky to not have won any of their last three matches where their xG difference combined is +2.6. Without their talisman, it’s all about what Evanilson, Semenyo, Cook, and Dango can do..
Model has this line priced at 1.72.
BET: Bournemouth -.25 at 2.12 (Asian Handicap)
| Bournemouth Win: | +£11.20 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| West Ham Win: | -£10.00 |
IPSWICH V WOLVES
As just mentioned, Ipswich pulled off an excellent sneaky win away at Bournemouth in the week. Such a result might provide hope for their final eight matches of the season. This match will be an important one for both, a win for Wolves could pretty much relegate Ipswich. A win for the hosts will pull Wolves back into the deep.
Writing that, it feels like Ipswich could do something here but I feel like the quality gap between them and Wolves is too big, even though Ipswich did win the opposite fixture. Model has this line priced at 1.62 in favour of Wolves.
BET: Wolves 0 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Wolves Win: | +£9.40 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Ipswich Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
BRENTFORD V CHELSEA
Goodness me, Brentford were perhaps unlucky to lose against Newcastle in midweek. Although they did have a penalty which provided a 0.79 boost to their xG total. I don’t really know about this one, I can see it being a draw more than either side winning and let me explain why.
Brentford haven’t won at home for seven matches, and only won one of those games on xG (vs Spurs). Chelsea haven’t won away for seven matches also, but haven’t won any of those on xG. Although, they do have Jackson back.
Brentford seem to only be good away from home at the moment, while Chelsea the same but at home. Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit. Model prices this at 1.94.
BET: Brentford +.25 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)
| Brentord Win: | +£10.00 |
| Draw: | +£5.00 |
| Chelsea Win: | -£10.00 |
MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY
No Haaland, no problem? I genuinely believe City may improve their season without him, I know it’s a bonkers thing to suggest. They changed their attacking style of play a lot to accomodate him, and we might see them slightly revert back to a style which suited Aguero, Jesus… for Marmoush. False Nine domination ball might be back.
City have improved, especially their underlying numbers looking back to normal now. United? Still bad. Model lines this at 1.57. There is value on betting on City outright here, they’re currently priced to win at 2.16 while my model suggests 1.77. However, as this is a derby I have gone for a safer half-returned stake in the event of a draw.
BET: Man City -.25 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Man City Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Man Utd Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
SATURDAY
BRISTOL CITY V WATFORD
I hate this bet and I can’t be bothered to talk about the analysis. Purely following the model which prices this at 1.81.
BET: Watford +.5 at 2.13 (Asian Handicap)
| Watford Win/Draw: | +£11.30 |
| Bristol City Win: | -£10.00 |
La Liga
FRIDAY
RAYO VALLECANO V ESPANYOL
I’ve successfully avoided betting on Celta Vigo this weekend for the first time in what feels like FOREVER. Espanyol are yet to win a match away from home on xG this season, despite winning once. They’ve only created a total of 2.9 xG in their last five away matches too. Rayo have created 8.7 in their last five at home.
Feels like it should be an easy one right? Hahaha. I have learnt to never think like that again in recent weeks!! Model prices this at 1.68.
BET: Rayo Vallecano -.75 at 2.04 (Asian Handicap)
| Rayo Vallecano Win by 2 or more: | +£10.40 |
| Rayo Vallecano Win by 1: | +£5.20 |
| Espanyol Win/Draw: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
SEVILLA V ATLETICO MADRID
Madrid have taken a slight tumble recently, two wins in five. The reality is they threw away a 2-0 lead late on to lose 4-2 against Barcelona in one of those matches (match was even on xG), and drew the other two matches on xG. So really you could argue they should still have two wins in five. Well that wasn’t productive. I still think they turn it around here, Sevilla aren’t special right now.
Madrid to win is at 2.3 in the market. Model odds: 1.96
BET: Atletico Madrid to Win at 2.3
| Atletico Win: | +£13.00 |
| Draw/Sevilla Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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