Results from the Weekend bets
Oh nice, a profit! The first one in two articles.. yay! My win rate has finally regressed to 52.7%, as I did expect it to, but I would like to make good money like I did in article 5 and 6 which currently provides 65% of my profits so far. I didn’t make a loss for six articles (4-9), so some downturn has been expected. The good news is that I’m still healthly in profit! 110 bets in and my ROI is currently 13.2%, a lot higher than my long term target of 5%.
I did add a bet which I didn’t include in the article, both teams to score: No for Leicester v Newcastle, only because Isak was a doubt for the match. But he was announced in the starting lineup so I swiftly made that bet as it was still lingering in my mind. Leicester haven’t score in over twelve hours of Premier League football now, that is astoundingly poor.
I don’t want to analyse these matches too much but I will give a special shoutout to Rayo Vallecano. What on Earth was that? Heavy favourites against a side who have only won away once this season, went on to lose FOUR-NIL?! And it was deserved too, they were absolutely battered on xG (0.67 – 3.27). LOL.
Atletico Madrid delivered on the bet for them to win, however they left it bloody late and came from a goal down. The Manchester derby was a let down, no need to mention much more on that. I hated that Watford bet against Bristol City and I made that clear in the article, wishing I left that one alone like I wanted to.
This round of bets started off poorly. On Saturday I was sat on a loss of -£15.60, but Sunday turned it back with a profit of +£13.00. I didn’t turn my focus on the football much on the Sunday as I was too involved with watching the Minecraft movie with my son. Total cinema.
Anyway, Championship weekdays again! I’m hoping to turn around my fortunes with my bets on this league as while I’m in profit, it’s only by one win from break even. After thirty-three bets on the Championship, I’ve won fifteen and lost fourteen. P/L: +£10.95. Just want to creep that league above 50% on win rate, currently sat on 45%.
Profit / Loss from 04/03/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol | Rayo -.75 | 2.04 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| West Ham v Bournemouth | Bournemouth -.25 | 2.12 | 10.00 | -5.00 |
| Ipswich v Wolves | Wolves 0 | 1.94 | 10.00 | +9.40 |
| Bristol City v Watford | Watford +.5 | 2.13 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Brentford v Chelsea | Brentford +.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +5.00 |
| Sevilla v Atletico Madrid | Atletico Win | 2.3 | 10.00 | +13.00 |
| Man Utd v Man City | Man City -.25 | 1.90 | 10.00 | -5.00 |
| Leicester v Newcastle | BTTS No | 2.0 | 10.00 | +10.00 |
| Total P/L: | +£7.40 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£145.50 |
Championship
TUESDAY
PRESTON V CARDIFF
The away side still only have one win all season on the road, and they’re visiting a side who have only lost twice at home all season. Both sides are averaging around 1.0 xG and xGA at the moment. Cardiff have only created more than 1.0 xG in a match once in their last five away. Model prefers Preston here at it’s own odds of 1.63. This match has a good chance of being a draw to be honest, at least the stake would be returned.
BET: PNE 0 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| PNE Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | £0.00 |
| Cardiff Win: | -£10.00 |
STOKE V LUTON
Not too big on betting on any Luton matches right now, their results are starting to come in right at the end of the campaign. As mentioned before several times, according to the underlying numbers they have massively underperformed by ten points in the league table. They should be in a safer spot at 49.6 points (mid table). However..
For the first time this season, Stoke’s five game rolling average for xG has finally moved above their xGA. After 37 matches, they finally started creating more xG on average then they were conceding and they have continued that trend since. xG conceded is below 1.0 for the first time too, while their xG is hitting 1.5 for the first time.
Luton’s form makes this bet a shaky one, however my model cannot feel emotion. It just tells me that this line should be priced at 1.95, in a font which looks like it would sound like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
BET: Stoke -.25 at 2.13 (Asian Handicap)
| Stoke Win: | +£11.10 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Luton Win: | -£10.00 |
WEDNESDAY
COVENTRY V PORTSMOUTH
I’ve bet on Coventry four times since the start of February with proft/loss of -£0.89. So we’re gonna do it again! Two of those bets that lost were against Sheffield Utd and Leeds to be fair.. looking back now I probably should’ve ignored those lines at the time. This one looks a LOT safer.
Coventry have lost their last two matches, but in context they were against the top two in the division (Sheffield Utd and Burnley). They have won six of their last ten matches, four in the last five at home too. Whereas Portsmouth have only won once away all season. Coventry are heavy favourites for good reason.
Ending the midweek bets with this one modelled at 1.72.
BET: Coventry -.75 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)
| Coventry Win by 2 or more: | +£8.60 |
| Coventry Win by 1 goal: | +£4.30 |
| Draw/Portsmouth Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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