SATURDAY

MAN CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE

City are very short priced here against a Palace side who are in really good form away from home right now. They haven’t lost any of their last ten on their travels, and have only conceded once in their last six. City have no Haaland, but that doesn’t mean they’re not a threat. They coped before he joined the side. Can see both sides scoring, hopefully a Palace draw.

Model prefers a price of 1.92.

BET: Crystal Palace +1 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)

ARSENAL V BRENTFORD

Might be a dodgy bet this, but I can sense the feel good from the Madrid win following into this match. Arsenal could do without dropped points this weekend to keep the momentum going into their visit to Madrid on Wednesday. I suspect however, key players to be rested once again. Cannot see Saka, Rice, Timber starting this match. That’s what makes this bet slightly wonky. But they do have White, Jorginho, and Nwaneri to cover. That is good.

Arsenal have won five of their seven matches against Brentford in the Premier League, drawing and lose one. The only win Brentford have against Arsenal was in their own stadium, against a covid-striken side. Can see both sides scoring, probably just the one goal in it, but if Arsenal start fast after their impressive win on Tuesday I can see them going a few up before half time to get the job done.

BET: Arsenal -1 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

QPR V BRISTOL CITY

It’s hard work betting on Bristol City matches, they are a gamblers nightmare. However, this one feels sound. FEELS. They’ve been poor on the road this season, winning just four times. Whereas the hosts have only lost twice at home in their last ten. Model prefers a price of 1.70.

BET: QPR +.25 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)

CARDIFF V STOKE

Both sides are scoring and conceding a healthy amount of goals per game recently for this bet to come into fruition. The hosts have scored in nine of their last ten at home, conceding in seven of them. Stoke have scored in seven of their last ten away, while conceding in nine of them. Model backs this line at 1.87.

BET: Both Teams to Score: YES at 1.95

FRIDAY

WOLFSBURG V RB LEIPZIG

No underlying numbers jump out and verify this bet for me, appears to be all model vibes. Leipzig are the better side so to get a price on this line at 1.84 is good for me, although since making the bet yesterday I have noticed it has dropped and now moved to +.25/-.25, so it’s unlikely it’ll creep back up to this price for you. Currently priced at 1.79 at the time of writing.

No wins in five at home for Wolfsburg, no wins in last seven away for Leipzig. Both sides are currently scoring below their expected amounts too. This bet is ALL VIBES. Model prices this at 1.74.

BET: Leipzig 0 at 1.84 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

CELTA VIGO V ESPANYOL

Last weekend I bet on Rayo Vallecano to win against Espanyol, comprehensively too. Well the away side decided to put in their best performance of the season and win 4-0, slaughtering Rayo. Hoping that was just an anomaly here, but Celta are a decent side. They are unbeaten in eight matches (home+away). Whereas Espanyol have just two wins away all season.. although both have come fairly recently… might have to keep an eye on those for future bets..

Model prices this at 1.68.

BET: Celta Vigo -.75 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)

FRIDAY

UDINESE VS MILAN

Current line is on +.5/-.5 where Milan are priced at 2.04, and my model suggests they should be 1.71. But I have noticed my model has suggested better value on the line above it on the -.75 line. This should be priced at 1.89, but it’s currently 2.36! Both bets are for Milan to win, but I can make more on this line if it goes well.

BET: Milan -.75 at 2.36 (Asian Handicap)