Results from last weekend’s bets

Man, the Palace bet was looking like it was crafted from perfection after they went 2-0 up away at the Etihad. Only to then lose 5-2.. I should probably stop betting against City now, they’re in a better place and they’re pushing for top five as the season comes to a close. My weekend started great with two wins on Friday night; Leipzig went 3-0 up (nervy ending as it ended 3-2), and Milan smashed Udinese 4-0. Those lines felt off, and they were..

Cardiff failed to score against Stoke for that bet to win, which is disappointing. They created 1.52 xG while gifting Stoke on own goal. Feel unlucky to lose that one, but that’s the risk of betting on sides in the bottom half of the table. Bristol City snatched a draw at QPR, but all good! We had a +.25 on QPR.

Looking back I regret my Arsenal bet, I did before kick off too. Arsenal are not focusing hard on the league anymore, just making sure they don’t lose. If they wanted to beat Brentford this weekend we would’ve seen a different performance, however I witnessed a side riding through this match trying not to pick up knocks and injuries. Would have been a stake return if Wissa didn’t score so nicely.

I messaged my friend Tam about Espanyol and how they have messed me around in the last two weekends now. His reply? “They turning into prime 2010 Wigan”. Last weekend I bet on Rayo Vallecano to beat them, lost 4-0. This weekend I bet on Celta Vigo to beat them, they lost 2-0. Both deservedly too, might have to consider swapping the bets around.

My article included no bets after Saturday which at the time of writing was fair, but on the morning of Sunday I discovered several markets had drifted and I could see value appearing from nowhere. My apologies for not writing up another article, I just didn’t have the time to write one on Sunday morning, however I’ve included the bets I made that morning in the table below in italics.

Profit / Loss from 11/04/25

MATCHBETBF ODDSSTAKEPROFIT/LOSS
Wolfsburg v LeipzigLeipzig 01.8410.00+8.40
Udinese v MilanMilan -.752.3610.00+13.60
Man City v PalacePalace +12.0710.00-10.00
Cardiff v StokeBTTS: YES1.9510.00-10.00
QPR v Bristol CityQPR +.251.9510.00+4.75
Arsenal v BrentfordArsenal -12.0910.00-10.00
Celta Vigo v EspanyolCelta Vigo -.751.8810.00-10.00
Fiorentina v ParmaFiorentina -.751.9610.00-10.00
Verona v GenoaGenoa 02.0110.00Stake Return
Newcastle v Man UnitedNewcastle -.751.9210.00+9.20
Sonderjyske v VeijeUnder 2.5 goals2.0210.00+10.20
Hull v CoventryCoventry 01.9910.00Stake Return
Total P/L:-£3.85
Overall P/L:+£140.95

I haven’t found much value for this coming weekend, nor do I have much time to explain them with any analysis as it’s currently half term! Apologies for a drafty article this weekend.

SATURDAY

CRYSTAL PALACE V BOURNEMOUTH

Bournemouth have struggled since Kluivert’s injury, while Palace have conceded ten goals in their last two matches. Gosh. The underlying numbers are in favour of Palace still, so my model leans on them here. Despite their recent hammerings by Newcastle and Man City, they’ve had a decent run recently compared to the visitors.

BET: Palace 0 at 1.97 (Asian Handicap)

Palace Win:+£9.70
Draw:Stake Return
Bournemouth Win:-£10.00

FRIDAY

DERBY V LUTON

No notes, good luck.

BET: Deby -.25 at 2.2 (Asian Handicap)

Derby Win:+£12.00
Draw:-£5.00
Luton Win:-£10.00

NORWICH V PORTSMOUTH

Again, no time for notes. Only thing I want to mention is Portsmouth have been dreadful away all season, Norwich should win. Should.

BET: Norwich -.75 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)

Norwich Win by 2 goals:+£10.90
Norwich Win by 1 goal:+£5.45
Draw/Portsmouth Win:-£10.00

FRIDAY

BRONDBY V NORDSJAELLAND

Have enjoyed watching the Danish Superliga for several years now, I have several Midtjylland shirts in my wardrobe. Last weekend I worked on adding this league into my model, and here we are. My model likes Bondby on this line at suggested odds of 1.68.

BET: Brondby -.25 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)

Brondby Win:+£8.80
Draw:-£5.00
Nordsjaelland Win:-£10.00

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