Results from last weekend’s bets
Had a hard weekend this time round and I took my time avoiding checking how much I’d lost because I knew I hadn’t made a profit, but to my pleasant suprise it’s only a -£10.70. It felt like a LOT more. Once again I found value on the morning of Saturday and Sunday, apologies as those bets didn’t make the article. They are detailed below. The bets I listed in the article didn’t return any money unfortunately.
I backed Norwich (a side who I vehemently do not trust) to beat Portsmouth by a few goals. Well they were dismantled 3-5 by the away side. It wasn’t until afterwards when my friend told me that Portsmouth needed a win to be safe from relegation when I realised that match was a hard avoid. Live and learn. Let’s not discuss Derby.
Faily unlucky to lose the Brondby bet as they won their match 1.99 – 0.58 on xG, but failed to score. Match ended 0-0. Leeds probably should have won by two or more goals too against Oxford but only managed the one, as I’m going through these matches now I’m starting to feel rather unlucky. Those two should have won.
Man City left it REALLY late for that bet to win. I checked the score before they’d scored and I thought “wow, that’s five losing bets in a row”. Then Palace scraped a 0-0 after having a sending off before half time which provided me with my money back! Villa were priced at some seriously good value against Newcastle too, I considered it for a few days and bit the bullet Sunday morning and I’m glad I did. They destroyed Newcastle.
Again though, I feel INCREDIBLY unlucky to not have won this next bet.. Liverpool to win by 2 or more. They absolutely PEPPERED Leicester, decimated them (0.27 – 2.57). They won 1-0 thanks to a late-ish Trent shot which probably should’ve been saved.
Lastly, I bet on Leeds again. This time they pulled through, comfortably. That bet was won in the first 30 minutes of that match! I didn’t see much value appear for the Monday matches, those that were suggested by my model I really didn’t see. My list had Bristol City to win or draw, but Luton are flying right now so I couldn’t back it. Quite right too, Luton won 3-1. I’m hopeful that they will stay up, my model has suggested for a while that they are really unfortunate to be where they are in the table, they should be mid.
Profit / Loss from 18/04/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby v Luton | Derby -.25 | 2.2 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Norwich v Portsmouth | Norwich -.75 | 2.09 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Brondby v FC Nordsjaelland | Brondby -.25 | 1.88 | 10.00 | -5.00 |
| Oxford v Leeds | Leeds -1.25 | 1.85 | 10.00 | -5.00 |
| Everton v Man City | Man City to Win | 2.0 | 10.00 | +10.00 |
| Crystal Palace v Bournemouth | Palace 0 | 1.97 | 10.00 | Stake Return |
| Aston Villa v Newcastle | Aston Villa 0 | 1.92 | 10.00 | +9.20 |
| Leicester v Liverpool | Liverpool -1.75 | 1.78 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Leeds v Stoke | Leeds -1.75 | 2.01 | 10.00 | +10.10 |
| Total P/L: | -£10.70 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£130.25 |
La Liga
TUESDAY
VALENCIA V ESPANYOL
Fed up of losing bets against Espanyol, this time I’m joining them. They have done great in recent matches to steer themselves away from relegation, and I think they will continue that into this match. One more win for Espanyol puts them above 40 points, nice and safe.
Need to improve my results from La Liga, watch Espanyol revert back to the side my model keep telling me they are in this match.
BET: Espanyol +.5 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)
| Espanyol Win/Draw | +£9.50 |
| Valencia Win: | -£10.00 |
BARCELONA V MALLORCA
Expecting a mauling from Barca, but not without dropping a goal. Model prices this at 1.85.
BET: BTTS Yes at 2.12
| Both Teams Score | +£11.20 |
| Both Teams DO NOT Score | -£10.00 |
WEDNESDAY
ALAVES V REAL SOCIEDAD
Can’t back Alaves, despite how much my model wants me to. Just four wins at home and scoring well below their expected goals total so far, they’re not great. My model suggests they should be around 9th with fourty-three points, they’re thirteen points behind right now.
BET: Real Sociedad +.25 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)
| Real Sociedad Win: | +£8.80 |
| Draw: | +£4.40 |
| Alaves Win: | -£10.00 |
Superliga
TUESDAY
NORDSJAELLAND V MIDTJYLLAND
Don’t like betting against my beloved Midtjylland here, but they have overperformed this season and playing away against a side who have only lost once at home this season. They haven’t won away in this match in seven attempts, and have just three wins in their last ten away matches in all competitions. Four away wins in the league also.
I want them to win, they need it so they can keep going in the title race, but this will be a difficult match. If they lose, they can cancel it out when they play them again on the weekend.
BET: Nordsjaelland 0 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)
| Nordsjaelland Win | +£9.20 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Midtjylland Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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