Results from the weekday bets
Smashed the first two bets, it was the final two which I was worried about and rightly so. Should have avoided the Barca v Mallorca BTTS, the other bet I considered for that one would have lost too (Barca to win by 2 or more), the away sides’ keeper turned into prime Buffon in that match. Less annoyed about the Alaves loss, quite unlucky to be honest. Perhaps should’ve been a draw, a match that was decided by one goal scored from an xG of 0.09.
Profit / Loss from 22/04/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia v Espanyol | Espanyol +.5 | 1.95 | 10.00 | +£9.50 |
| FC Nordsjaelland v Midtjylland | Nordsjaelland 0 | 1.92 | 10.00 | +£9.20 |
| Barcelona v Mallorca | BTTS YES | 2.12 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Alaves v Real Sociedad | Real Sociedad +.25 | 1.88 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£1.30 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£128.95 |
Still in profit but it’s slowly creeping down from that excellent first month in February. My average closing line value % is almost up to break even now which is good, it’s been lingering at -1% for a while, but my ROI% is sliding down slowly. I keep telling myself it’s ok though, it’s due to variance, because of the good start I had… expected a down turn. Starting to expect an upturn again at some point though. Maths.
FA CUP
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
OOOOOHHHHH FA CUP SEMI FINALS. Palace to reach the final again? They’ve been my favourites for the last few rounds, I hope they can do it. My model has them priced on this line at 1.48, a significant edge or error. To be fair, I’d like to see any of the sides bar City win this trophy. Remember, this bet is just for 90 minutes. I like having the odds on a draw in my favour too.
BET: Palace +.25 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| Palace Win: | +£9.90 |
| Draw: | +£4.95 |
| Aston Villa Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
FRIDAY
STOKE V SHEFFIELD UNITED
Play offs confirmed for Sheffield, and Stoke are safe from relegation. Both sides playing out of the remainder of the season now, although I imagine Sheffield will want to go into the play offs in better form than they have been. Model prices this at 1.50.
BET: Sheffield United +.25 at 1.83 (Asian Handicap)
| Sheffield United Win: | +£8.30 |
| Draw: | +£4.15 |
| Stoke Win: | -£10.00 |
SATURDAY
CARDIFF V WEST BROM
Cardiff have a new interim manager in Ramsey, but do they have enough to escape relegation in two matches? Eh. Motivation might pull off a win here, but I’m playing for a draw. West Brom have a very, very slim chance of reaching the play offs. Cardiff haven’t beaten the Baggies in their last seven games. Model prices this at 1.43.
BET: West Brom +.5 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| West Brom Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw: | +£4.50 |
| Cardiff Win: | -£10.00 |
OXFORD V SUNDERLAND
Oxford have been a nemesis for my bets this season. Come on Sunderland. Only risk here is that Oxford are fighting from relegation and Sunderland have wrapped up in the play offs. Just can’t see the home side turning them over, despite really needing to.
BET: Sunderland -.25 at 2.12 (Asian Handicap)
| Sunderland Win: | +£11.20 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Oxford Win: | -£10.00 |
Premier League
SATURDAY
CHELSEA V EVERTON
Could be a close bet this one, but my model has this priced at 1.88. Chelsea’s attacking xG numbers have fallen in recent matches, and Everton have had a lot of 1-1 draws recently. The away side haven’t got anything to play fot but are still vibing away towards the end of the season. If they continue on this path they will finish above Spurs and Manchester United.
BET: Both Teams To Score: YES at 1.97
| BTTS Yes: | +£9.70 |
| BBTS No: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
LIVERPOOL V SPURS
Liverpool will win the title here with just a point. They will be heavily motivated to win the league with their fans this time round (no covid cup this time), and are playing against a side who are focusing on their European campaign. Unsure myself if they’ll win by two goals but this feels like one of those matches where Salah revives himself and turns up big time. I will be shocked if it’s 0-0 at half time.
BET: Liverpool -1.75 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Liverpool Win by 3 or more: | +£9.00 |
| Liverpool Win by 2 goals: | +£4.50 |
| Liverpool Win by 1 goal | -£10.00 |
| Draw/Spurs Win | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
SATURDAY
LEVERKUSEN V AUGSBURG
Leverkusen have let the title chase slip away from them in recent weeks, with this match probably being their final throw of the dice. Neither side are in great form according to the underlying numbers, but the sense of motivation from Leverkusen may make this land. They NEED to win. Model prices this at 2.01.
BET: Leverkusen -1.5 at 2.15 (Asian Handicap)
| Leverkusen Win by 2 or more: | +£11.50 |
| Leverkusen Win by 1 goal: | -£10.00 |
| Draw/Augsburg Win: | -£10.00 |
BAYERN MUNICH V MAINZ
Bayern can clinch the title with a win here at home (if Leverkusen fail) against a Mainz side they have beaten 14-3 on aggregate in their last two meetings at the Allianz. Expecting a party atmosphere. Model prices this at 1.91. Kane’s first trophy?
BET: Bayern -2 at 2.01 (Asian Handicap)
| Bayern Win by 3 or more: | +£10.10 |
| Bayern Win by 2 goals: | Stake Return |
| Bayern Win by 1 goal: | -£10.00 |
| Draw/Mainz Win: | -£10.00 |
La Liga
SUNDAY
VILLARREAL V ESPANYOL
Find it hard to bet against Espanyol right now. They’ve turned into a prime top six La Liga side in the last 4-5 matches, showing no signs of stopping either. Villarreal are the better side though, and are pushing for European football. We’ll see. Model prices this at 1.84.
BET: Espanyol + 1.25 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Espanyol Win/Draw: | +£9.30 |
| Villarreal Win by 1 goal: | +£4.65 |
| Villarreal Win by 2 or more goals: | -£10.00 |
Superliga
SUNDAY
MIDTJYLLAND V NORDSJAELLAND
I bet on the same match last week, except Midtjylland are now at home. The Nords won the previous fixture 3-2 (bet won!), but this will be a different fixture. Midtjylland have only lost once at home in their last fourteen against Nordsjaelland, winning ten of them. The hosts are just one point behind Copenhagen at the top of the table, they need to win to keep up the title chase.
BET: Midtjylland to Win at 2.06
| Midtjylland Win: | +£10.60 |
| Draw: | -£10.00 |
| Nordsjaelland Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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