01/05/25: Weekday Bets

Results from the weekend

Ohhhh when writing up these bets they felt right, I was confident for the first time in a while. Good reason so too because I only lost two of the ten! A lot of the value this week was from end of season motivations e.g. title challenges.

Liverpool needed a draw to win the league, but they won’t ever play for a draw. They wanted to win in front of their fans as they were unable to do so in Covid when they last won the league. Well, as predicted, they dismantled Spurs 5-1.

Midtjylland also put Nordsjaelland to the sword 5-0 to keep themselves in the title shout. And Bayern Munich are one match away from winning the Bundesliga. I’m happy Palace have made it through to the FA Cup final, big fan of Glasnerball.

Been several weeks since I last had a decent return like this weekend, it’s been a bit of a slog. I’d made a -£20 loss from 27th Feb to 23rd April. Hopefully I can finally hit that target of £200 which I have wanted to do since the start of March..

Profit / Loss from 25/04/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Stoke v Sheffield United	Sheffield +.25	1.83	10.00	+8.30
Chelsea v Everton	BTTS Yes	1.97	10.00	-10.00
Bayern Munich v Mainz	Bayern -2.0	2.01	10.00	+10.10
Leverkusen v Augsburg	Leverkusen -1.5	2.15	10.00	+11.50
Cardiff v West Brom	West Brom +.25	1.9	10.00	+4.50
Oxford v Sunderland	Sunderland -.25	2.12	10.00	-10.00
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa	Palace +.25	1.99	10.00	+9.90
Villarreal v Espanyol	Espanyol	1.93	10.00	+4.65
Liverpool v Spurs	Liverpool	1.9	10.00	+9.00
Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland	Midtjylland	2.06	10.00	+10.60
			Total P/L:	+£53.05
			Overall P/L:	+£182.00

Three months of results

The red line would be the profit/loss if I had hedged out for a small loss for each bet where the closing line odds drifted from the odds I bet at by more than 2%. Although both are currently lined up at the same profit value, the red line appears a lot stronger.


Total Bets	148
Won	77
Lost	57
Pushes (Stake Returns)	14
Win Rate	52.0%
Total Staked	£1,480.00
Profit/Loss	+£182.00
Average Odds	2.00
Average CLV	-0.28%
ROI	12.80%

Month	Bets	Win Rate	Profit/Loss
February	51	64.7%	+£167.95
March	47	42.6%	-£10.75
April	50	48.0%	+£24.80

Just the one bet for the midweek. Have found value on the weekend coming up though.. wait until Friday for that one. I will give one tip, Liverpool are currently priced on +.25 against Chelsea at 1.99. Despite potentially being “on the beach”, I can’t see them downing tools and losing against Chelsea – even though they will be fighting for the win for top four. There is value there.

Premier League

THURSDAY

NOTT FOREST V BRENTFORD

Have made some happy returns betting on Forest so far, but I find myself against them here. While there is motivation for them to work towards a European spot, their recent form has been… meh. They’re conceding a lot of chances right now, something Brentford will happily exploit. The chart below describes Forest’s underlying numbers form currently.

Forest’s rolling average for xG and xGA. Finding themselves conceding more better chances than creating right now.

A win for Forest takes them back into 3rd, motivation. However my model suggests either a draw/Brentford result is more likely. Prices this one at 1.62.

BET: Brentford +.25 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)

Brentford Win:	+£10.60
Draw:	+£5.30
Forest Win:	-£10.00