Results from the weekday bets
There was one bet I missed out on in the 25/04 article, and that was Leeds -1 vs Bristol City. That bet won comfortably. And then on Thursday… Forest barely put any pressure on the Brentford defence, a familiar theme from recent weeks for the overperforming powers. The away side deserved their win, and thankfully it meant our bet won rather comfortably. Time for the weekend’s bets. I’ve only found value in the Premier League this weekend, nothing for the final week of the Championship or other leagues strangely. Might appear on the day of, we’ll see in the next update.
Profit / Loss from 01/05/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds v Bristol City | Leeds -1 | 1.86 | 10.00 | +8.60 |
| Forest v Brentford | Brentford +.25 | 2.06 | 10.00 | +10.60 |
| Total P/L: | +£19.20 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£201.20 |
Premier League
SATURDAY
ARSENAL V BOURNEMOUTH
Yeah, feel free to not do this bet. It makes sense to avoid due to Arsenal’s focus purely being on PSG on the coming Wednesday. They will rotate. But if you are made of stronger stuff, £10 on this one. Model prices this at 1.51.
BET: Arsenal to Win at 2.16
| Arsenal Win: | +£11.60 |
| Draw: | -£10.00 |
| Bournemouth Win: | -£10.00 |
LEICESTER V SOUTHAMPTON
Both sides relegated. Either boring or tactics thrown in the bin. The only motivation here is for Southampton to not equal Derby’s record lowest points in a league season. Leicester have struggled to score at all in the second half of the season, might score here though. 1.78 is the price my model throws at me.
BET: Southampton +.25 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Southampton Win: | +£9.30 |
| Draw: | +£4.65 |
| Leicester Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
CHELSEA V LIVERPOOL
Liverpool are the league champions. Oh whoopie. The current line for this match is really generous for Liverpool here, it’s odd unless you consider the context that they have NOTHING to play for now. But I can’t see Slot giving up the final matches, he’ll still play to win. Chelsea need to win to help their European chances, but it’s Liverpool who have only lost twice all season (in the league). Model has this priced at 1.69.
BET: Liverpool +.25 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)
| Liverpool Win: | +£10.60 |
| Draw: | +£5.40 |
| Chelsea Win: | -£10.00 |
MONDAY
PALACE V NOTT FOREST
Another risky one. Palace not thinking about the league and look set to finish mid table. Their focus is on the FA Cup final. Forest need – I repeat – NEED to win to keep their European chances high. They were poor against Brentford and haven’t been particularly special in recent weeks attacking or defensively.
Being honest I can see this being a draw, but my model prices this line at 1.89.
BET: Palace -.25 at 1.98 (Asian Handicap)
| Palace Win: | +£9.80 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Forest Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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