SATURDAY

WOLVES V BRIGHTON

The sensible bet here is to move on Wolves 0 at 2.06, but my model heavily suggests Brighton are the pick of choice here. I’m uncomfortable with this one, Wolves have been on fire and seriously a good side under their new manager. Feel free to ignore this bet, I will make it though. Brighton are hunting Europe. End of season VIBES.

BET: Brighton 0 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)

SOUTHAMPTON V MAN CITY

Since placing this bet this price has moved down to 1.85, you might see this line change to -2.25 tomorrow morning. Southampton are poor, relegated, and have nothing to play for. City are trying to cement their European place and potentially pinch 2nd from Arsenal. Several sides have won big at St. Mary’s this season… and KDB looks to be trying to end his City career in good form too.

BET: Man City -2 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)

FULHAM V EVERTON

My model HATED this match selection. Neither side creating or conceding much in the underlying numbers right now. Fulham’s five game rolling average xG is 0.9, and xGA 0.9. While Everton’s xG is 1.1, xGA = 1.0. Depressing stuff. My model also says that both teams to score has a chance of 37%. Bleugh. Not banking on an Everton win here, banking on more sufferball 0-0/1-1 from them.

BET: Everton +.5 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)

BOURNEMOUTH V ASTON VILLA

This line has actually moved to -.25/+.25 overnight. Still value to be had on that line with Bournemouth -.25 at 2.15, my model says it should be priced at 1.93. My bet was earlier though on the 0 line. Despite Villa’s recent upturn in form (7 wins from 10), my model still prefers the hosts here. Their injury woes have passes now and my model has LOVED them through the course of the season. According to the underlying numbers there are the better side, they should be 3rd in the table.

BET: Bournemouth 0 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA

My model has Newcastle priced at 1.47 for this match. Seems like a massive discrepancy, but the reality is Chelsea have only won once in their last nine away matches and have lost their last two visits to St. James’ Park. Both sides are PUSHING to secure Europe, I’m backing Newcastle here who have the better form (at home vs Chelsea’s away). Model has the expected goals score at Newcastle 2.3 – 0.94 Chelsea.

BET: Newcastle to Win at 2.24

SATURDAY

TORONTO V DC UNITED

Expecting a close match between these two. Toronto have just the one win so far this season while DC aren’t doing much better either. Purely vibing this bet on the fact that DC have been able to create more xG in their last five away matches than Toronto have at home. Toronto have scored just once at home this season so far from an xG of 4.1, they’re not firing unlike their upcoming opponents (only failed to score in three games since the start of the season). Model prices this line at 1.71. If this price falls we could see value on the pick’em line (0).

BET: DC +.25 at 1.84 (Asian Handicap)

PHILADELPHIA UNION V COLUMBUS CREW

Two wins in their last ten visits to Philadelphia for the Crew, but this could be a good opportunity for them. Despite their recent form though my model still stands with the hosts. Columbus have won three of their four away matches so far, and drawn the remaining (ten points). However their underlying numbers suggest they should have drawn three and lost one (three points). The Union however have won four of their six home matches so far, drawing one and losing one. Underlying numbers suggest they were unlucky to lose that match, should have been a draw. Might be a tight match.

BET: Philadelphia -.25 at 2.15 (Asian Handicap)

COLORADO V SJ EARTHQUAKES

My model prices Colorado at 1.57, significantly lower than the current odds price. Weirdly, on the correct score market my model suggests the most likely outcome is “any other Home win”, which is any win other than 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2. Underlying numbers wise these sides are pretty tight. The visitors have only won once in their last ten visits here too, their last visit..

BET: Colorado to Win at 1.93