SATURDAY

CRYSTAL PALACE V MAN CITY

Palace have been exceptional of late and fully deserve this occasion, unfortunately they are up against serial winners Man City who have had a horrid season but have somewhat steady the ship as of late. Despite their dreadful campaign they could still end up with a trophy. Sorry City, but it’s you vs the rest of England today. If Palace can’t win in 90 mins, I’m hoping they at least get to extra time. Glasnerball + Mateta magic. Vibe it baby.

BET: Palace +.75 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)

SUNDAY

ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE

I have spent all week working my head on this match and I’m finding it hard. I want to avoid but I think I’m somewhat happy with my choice here. I don’t have enough confidence to back an Arsenal win here but I just don’t think they lose. Newcastle are able to field a pretty much full strength side whereas Arsenal are missing Merino through suspension, Trossard with a thigh injury, and Rice for the season. Unless Havertz miraculously plays in this match, they have nobody up top other than Nwaneri. This bet is a win/win for me, if it loses then my Arsenal side ward off any takers for 2nd place.

BET: Newcastle +.5 at 1.89 (Asian Handicap)

AUSTIN FC V VANCOUVER WHITECAPS

These sides have a bit of distance between each other in the tables, however they’re expected to be sharing the top four. Austin are underperforming while Vancouver are enjoying a slight overperformance. I would normally discuss regression to the mean here but Vancouver haven’t been underperforming away from home, they’re got their visiting results on good merit so far (three wins and two draws, same as my expected model).

Austin however have just three wins, two draws from seven home matches so far. They’re expected to have five wins and one draw. Probably a draw but we’ll go with it. Worth noting that Vancouver have only lost once so far this season, while the hosts are without a win in their last four. My model has priced this at 1.9.

BET: Vancouver -.25 at 2.12 (Asian Handicap)

PORTLAND TIMBERS V SEATTLE SOUNDERS

This kicks off at 2.30am in my local time and Seattle are away so I can’t make any sleepless in Seattle jokes right now, wait for the next article.

Portland are in the bottom half of the table and, according to my model, overperforming. Yikes. Seattle are underperforming right now, they should be top of the league right now according to my xG table. I slightly hesistated with this bet as Seattle have found their underperformance to be away from home where they have only won twice and lost four. They’ve been expected to have won three while losing twice. Portland have been decent at home too.

Model prices this at 1.87.

BET: Seattle 0 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)

NEW ENGLAND V SJ EARTHQUAKES

The Revolution are priced favourites here, whether correctly or not we will see. My model prices them at 2.20, not 1.9 like the current market suggests. If we see the odds drift up over the next day or so this line will move to a +.25. I think it’s likely both sides will score here, probably end 2-2. Backing San Jose here while their current rolling average xG is above 2.5, they’re creating significantly great chances each game.

BET: Earthquakes +.5 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)

COLORADO V REAL SALT LAKE

Both sides are poor, but Colorado are better.

BET: Colorado -.25 at 1.98 (Asian Handicap)

COLUMBUS V CINCINNATI

Cincinnati are scoring more than should be right now, therefore are winning more than they should. Sustainable? Idk, I need to watch them more as the season unfolds. Can’t say the same for the hosts, they’re right up there and should be according to their underlying numbers.

BET: Columbus to Win at 2.04