25/05/25: Weekend Bets

Results from last weekends’ bets

Made a very small profit from this weekend. I actually hedged the Newcastle bet for a small loss after seeing the team lineups, Trossard and Rice suprised me and not only made the squad but started the match! Although, with how the match played out I think the Gunners were fortunate to win. Respect Raya.

Perhaps I need to create a telegram or mail out to let those reading this to hedge for small losses if the edge for the bet has gone before kick off (or odds shift dramatically). There have been several bets recently which have lost where I have considered hedging after witnessing the closing line value drift far away from the odds I have bet at, Newcastle being an example this weekend. Backed at 1.89 in the week and it drifted to 2.05 at kick off.

Profit / Loss from 17/05/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Palace v Man City	Palace +.75	1.91	10.00	+9.10
Austin v Vancouver	Vancouver -.25	2.12	10.00	-5.00
Portland Timbers v Seattle	Seattle 0	1.94	10.00	Stake Return
New England v SJ Earthquakes	SJ Earthquakes +.5	2.07	10.00	+10.70
Colorado v Real Salt Lake	Colorado -.25	1.98	10.00	+9.80
Columbus v Cincinnati	Columber to Win	2.04	10.00	-10.00
Arsenal v Newcastle	Newcastle +.5	1.89	10.00	-0.78 (HEDGED)
			Total P/L:	+£13.82
			Overall P/L:	+£167.62

Final day of the Premier League today! Is there much value? God knows, it’s one of the hardest days to predict any result. Big teams always end on a high…

Premier League

SUNDAY

SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL

Neither side have anything to play for, this final game is now a glorified friendly. Wouldn’t put it past Arsenal to annihilate the hosts here, they have a tendancy to win big on the final day of a season. Can I see Southampton scoring? Probably a fluke goal, but we’ll go with the chances. Model has this one priced at 1.57, with an expected goal tally of 0.58 for the hosts.

BET: Both Teams to Score: NO at 2.06

Both Teams DO NOT Score:	+£10.60
Both Teams Score:	-£10.00

WOLVES V BRENTFORD

Wolves’ great form has ended now and enter the final match of the season off the back of three consecutive defeats. While Brentford have lost just once in their last ten away matches. Model prices this at 1.66. Market has shifted significantly since making this bet a few days ago, it’s now priced at 1.65 so the value has gone. Current line is -.25 on Brentford at 1.93 which is in line with my model’s odds, no real value there but a good bet?

BET: Brentford 0 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)

Brentford Win:	+£9.00
Draw:	Stake Return
Wolves Win:	-£10.00

LIVERPOOL V CRYSTAL PALACE

My model LOVES this line, however there are reasons it current exists. Big teams like to end the season on a HIGH score. Both teams are in party moods having both won trophies recently. The FA Cup winners haven’t lost in seven matches, while the Premier League Champions are winless in three. Can see both sides score, just need Liverpool to not win by more than two for this bet to land.

Very cautious of this line, keeping an eye on the lineups. If it drifts higher than 2.0 then I will hedge for a small loss. Model prices this at 1.53.

BET: Palace +1.5 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)

Liverpool do NOT win by 2 or more goals:	+£9.00
Liverpool win by 2 goals:	-£10.00

MLS

SUNDAY

NEW YORK CITY V CHICAGO FIRE

Both sides are fairly matched accordingly to their underlying metrics, the edge is slightly with the hosts. My model prices this line at 1.57 so I will follow that.

BET: Chicago +.5 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)

Chicago Win/Draw:	+£8.50
New York Win:	-£10.00

ATLANTA V CINCINNATI

Metric wise these sides are very even, but Atlanta are massively under-performing while Cincinnati are massively over-performing! Might lose this one, have noticed it has drifted up to 1.9 from 1.7. My model prices this at 1.72.

BET: Atlanta 0 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)

Atlanta Win:	+£9.00
Draw:	Stake Return
Cincinnati Win:	-£10.00