Results from last weekend
Final day of the Premier League season was slightly disappointing to be really honest, the matches were bland and took until around the 65th minute around the games for some goals to eventually go in. Took a small -£2.00 on the weekend, now time to move onto the leagues that play in the calendar year.. MLS, I am looking at you baby.
Profit / Loss from 25/05/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southamton v Arsenal | BTTS: No | 2.06 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Wolves v Brentford | Brentford 0 | 1.09 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Liverpool v Palace | Palace +1.5 | 1.9 | 10.00 | +9.00 |
| NYCFC v Chicago | Chicago +.5 | 1.85 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Atlanta v Cincinnati | Atlanta 0 | 1.9 | 10.00 | +9.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£2.00 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£165.62 |
I’m really disapointed with myself for not writing up the bets I made for the weekday’s MLS fixtures. I made my syndicate +£118, while on here with the £10 flat stakes it would have returned +£52.49. I’ll promise to try and not to miss anymore! It’s half term, it’s been a busy week!!
Brasileiro Série A
SATURDAY
BAHIA V SAO PAULO
Model has this line priced at 1.71, and is expecting a low scoring match. So how do we go about making predictions here. Form wise? Bahia. They are churning out decent, solid results. Unbeaten in their first home matches of the season, while Sao Paulo are without a win in their four away. Despite this, my model still prefers the visitors here. Mainly due to their rolling expected numbers are slightly better than the hosts.
BET: Sao Paulo +.5 at 1.83 (Asian Handicap)
| Sao Paulo Win/Draw: | +£8.30 |
| Bahia Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
MIRASSOL V SPORT RECIFE
Both sides recently promoted, one side doing much better than the other. Backing Mirassol. Sport Recife yet to win a match and sit bottom while the hosts have only lost twice and my model has them sixth in the league.
BET: Mirassol -.5 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| Mirassol Win: | +£9.90 |
| Draw/Sport Recife: | -£10.00 |
VASCO DA GAMA V BRAGANTINO
Bragantino are currently the better side here according to the underlying metrics, and the current market price is wrong. Both sides have suspensions and injuries, and Bragantino haven’t won in their last three against Vasco da Gama. Despite that, they are slightly favoured for this match which is predicted to be very low scoring.
BET: Bragantino 0 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)
| Bragantino Win: | +£11.30 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Vasco da Gama Win: | -£10.00 |
MLS
SUNDAY
CINCINNATI V DC UNITED
You can happily leave this bet as it’s a slight risk considering the form of both sides, but Cincy are massively over-performing right now and this bet is misplaced according to my model. It should be 1.65 for +1.25 D.C. Bet only loses if Cincy win by two or more goals, something they have only done once this season (sixteen games played). Not expecting a D.C. win, they’ve been battered away from home this season and are missing Big Ben up top.
BET: D.C. United +1.25 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| DC Utd Win/Draw: | +£9.10 |
| Cincinnati Win by 1 goal: | +£4.55 |
| Cincinnati Win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
INTER MIAMI V COLUMBUS
Inter Miami have struggled to get a run of results so far this season, which is odd when you consider they’re scoring 2.0 goals per game. Their issue is their defence, and have only kept three clean sheets. They’re hosting a Columbus side who have only lost once away, however the last time they failed to score in a league game was a 1-0 defeat to Inter Miami in April. Columbus haven’t beaten Miami yet, but this is a good opportunity to get a result. Model price is 1.65.
BET: Columbus +.25 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)
| Columbus Win: | +£10.00 |
| Draw: | +£5.00 |
| Inter Miami Win: | -£10.00 |
NEW YORK RED BULLS V ATLANTA
Red Bulls have won six of their eight home games this season and are hosting Atlanta who are yet to win away, in fact they’ve only managed to get one point from a possible eighteen away. My model has this line at 1.62 which is a significant edge. Underlying numbers wise, both sides seem very even.
BET: NYRB -5 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| NYRB Win: | +£9.00 |
| Draw/Atlanta Win: | -£10.00 |
SAN DIEGO V AUSTIN
No complaints with this bet. Will be disappointing if San Diego fail to win here. Model price: 1.63.
BET: San Diego -.75 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| San Diego Win by 2 or more: | +£9.10 |
| San Diego Win by 1 goal: | +£4.55 |
| Austin Win: | -£10.00 |
SEATTLE SOUNDERS V MINNESOTA
Going against my model here which prefers Minnesota with a suggested price of 1.85 on this line. Sounders have been too good at home this season while ‘sota have been less so away. They’ve also not won or drawn away from home against Seattle since 2017, so there is that.
BET: Seattle -.5 at 1.97 (Asian Handicap)
| Seattle Win: | +£9.70 |
| Draw/Minnesota Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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