Results from last article
I missed out on writing an article last weekend due to making tweaks and migrating my model over from Excel/Sheets to R, managed to make a few bets for my syndicate but there was no profit overall. So we continue here with a +18.40 from the last batch of bets I made on here. Once again, very slowly moving towards hitting £200. Just want to pass it now.
Profit / Loss from 31/05/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia v Sao Paulo | Sao Paulo +.5 | 1.83 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Cincinnati v D.C. Utd | D.C. Utd +1.25 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +9.10 |
| Inter Miami v Columbus | Columbus +.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| NYRB v Atlanta | NYRB -.5 | 1.9 | 10.00 | +9.00 |
| San Diego v Austin | San Diego -.75 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +9.10 |
| Vasco da Gama v Bragantino | Bragantino 0 | 2.13 | 10.00 | +11.30 |
| Mirassol v Sport Recife | Mirassol -.5 | 1.99 | 10.00 | +9.90 |
| Seattle Sounders v Minnesota | Seattle -.5 | 1.97 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Total P/L: | +£18.40 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£184.02 |
Do apologise for the lateness of this article as the matches will be played tonight and early morning, so if you’re reading this tomorrow I’m really sorry. It’s been a busy week. Because of how late I am writing/publishing this one, apologies, there is next to nothing analysis for bet selection.
Brasileiro Série A
THURSDAY
VITORIA V CRUZEIRO (23:00 BST)
Predicted to be a low scoring affair. Model prices this line at 1.69.
BET: Vitoria +.25 at 1.97 (Asian Handicap)
| Vitoria Win: | +£9.70 |
| Draw: | +£4.85 |
| Cruzeiro Win: | -£10.00 |
BRAGANTINO V BAHIA (23:00 BST)
Another match predicted to be low scoring. Placed this bet earlier today and unfortunately at the time of writing this the price has powered down to 1.72 which is in line with what my model odds are. Currently the line offered is +.25 Bahia at 1.98.. no value according to my model.
BET: Bahia +.5 at 1.84 (Asian Handicap)
| Bahia Win/Draw: | +£8.40 |
| Bragantino Win: | -£10.00 |
FORTALEZA V SANTOS (23:30 BST)
Neither side have started the season spectacularly, could be a dead rubber of a match. But, backing the away side here. Same as the bet above, this line and price has shifted significantly since placing the bet so the value has gone. Model priced this at 1.68 and the market line is now currently 1.72.
BET: Santos +.5 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)
| Santos Win/Draw: | +£8.50 |
| Fortaleza Win: | -£10.00 |
Gremio v Corinthians (00:00 BST)
Oh boy, not a fan of making this bet but you gotta go with the vibes. Only need Gremio to not win here, and… Corinthians only have two points from their opening five away matches (possible: fifteen points). Model prices this at 1.82.
BET: Corinthians +.25 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)
| Corinthians Win: | +£9.50 |
| Draw: | +£4.75 |
| Gremio Win: | -£10.00 |
FRIDAY
Sao Paulo v Vasco Da Gama (01:30 BST)
Vasca Da Gama haven’t returned any points away from home this season and are currently conceding 1.5 xG per game right now while creating less than 1.0. Once again though, this line has moved since placing the bet. Current market is at -.75 on Sao Paulo, hard avoid on that line. Model priced this one at 1.75, current market price is 1.83.
BET: Sao Paulo -.5 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)
| Sao Paulo Win: | +£9.50 |
| Vasco Da Gama Win/Draw: | -£10.00 |
MLS
FRIDAY
NEW YORK CITY V ATLANTA UTD (00:30 BST)
Atlanta haven’t been good on the road so far, and I’ve seen enough from NYCFC to get a positive result here. Model prices this line at 1.84.
BET: NYCFC -.5 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| NYCFC Win: | +£9.90 |
| Atlanta Win/Draw: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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