Results from last article

Mate, check out the stats for the Colorado match… they got absolutely FM’d. Colorado won the match 3.64 – 0.84 on xG, but lost 1-2. Using that xG scoreline, Colorado should win 87.6% of the time… and a win for Kansas? 4%.

Profit / Loss from 04/07/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE	PROFIT/LOSS
Colorado v Kansas	Colorado -.5	1.91	10.00	-10.00
LA Galaxy v Vancouver	Vancouver +.25	1.88	10.00	-10.00
			Total P/L:	-£20.00
			Overall P/L:	+£208.67

MLS

SUNDAY

CINCINNATI V CHICAGO FIRE (00:30 BST)

Keep expecting Cincy to start dropping points from matches as they’ve performed well above their expected metrics so far. For once I will side with them and watch them finally drop points.

BET: Cincinnati -.5 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap / Match Odds: Colorado to Win)

Cincinnati Win:	+£9.50
Chicago Fire/Draw:	-£10.00

NASHVILLE V PHILADELPHIA (01:30 BST)

Nashville have been GREAT, so this is a hard bet to place. Feel free to ignore, but I’m trusting my model’s work on this one.

BET: Philly +.5 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)

Philly Win/Draw:	+£10.60
Nashville Win:	-£10.00

AUSTIN V LAFC (01:30 BST)

LAFC were doing okay before their disaster campaign at the Club World Cup. Their first match in the league after exiting was a 1-0 home defeat to Vancouver. Giroud has left the club to move to Lille, and Lloris continues to be injured. Need to get back on track but they also only have one win in their eight away matches so far so… poor form + lack of away wins? +.25 Austin sounds ok.

BET: Austin +.25 at 1.84 (Asian Handicap)

Austin Win:	+£8.40
Draw:	+£4.20
LAFC Win:	-£10.00

SJ EARTHQUAKES V NEW YORK RED BULLS (04:30 BST)

Red Bulls haven’t lost to San Jose in their last five meetings.. however, like LAFC, just the one win away from home this season. Although.. we only need a draw! The Earthquakes have won three at home from ten. Ehhh. I’ve made most of my money so far on the away sides so let’s back them.

BET: New York RB +.5 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)

NYRB Win/Draw:	+£10.20
San Jose Win:	-£10.00