Results from last article
Another good weekend! Had some fun in the midweek Championship games, regretting not writing those ones up on here (5/6 won, +£31.42). I won’t include it on the P/L here as it doesn’t seem fair, but I’ll do my best to keep track of writing the midweek ones on here again. Getting back into this after my break from writing these.
Profit / Loss from 01/11/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE (£) | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton v Leeds | Brighton -.5 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +£10.00 |
| Palace v Brentford | Palace -.5 | 2.02 | 10.00 | +£10.20 |
| Burnley v Arsenal | Arsenal -1.75 | 2.11 | 10.00 | +£5.55 |
| Forest v Man Utd | Forest +.5 | 1.88 | 10.00 | +£8.80 |
| Man City v Bournemouth | Bournemouth +1.25 | 1.85 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Barcelona v Elche | Barcelona -2.0 | 2.08 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Sunderland v Everton | Sunderland 0 | 2.01 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Total P/L: | +£24.55 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£142.32 |
Premier League
SATURDAY
TOTTENHAM V MAN UTD (12:30 GMT)
The market prefers United right now on the pick’em handicap, but my model has Spurs lined up on the better side of 50/50 on the -0.5 line. Price should be closer to 1.53, hard to trust either side right now which is probably reflected in the resistance on the betting market.
BET: Tottenham 0 at 2.12 (Asian Handicap)
| Tottenham Win: | +£11.20 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Man Utd Win: | -£10.00 |
WEST HAM V BURNLEY (15:00 GMT)
I hate this bet. Hate it. Hate it. Hate it.
BET: West Ham -.5 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)
| West Ham Win: | +£10.00 |
| Draw/Burnley: | -£10.00 |
SUNDERLAND V ARSENAL (17:30 GMT)
Yeah, I hate this too, but I see why the line is there. 0-1 to Arsenal? Model loves this line. Also, I have this strange feeling in my gut that Sunderland will be the team to break Arsenal’s clean sheet run. Xhaka via distance, low xG, it’s written in the stars. (NOTE: DO NOT MAKE BETS ON GUT INSTINCTS, BAD IDEA!)
BET: Sunderland +1.25 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Sunderland Draw/Win: | +£9.40 |
| Arsenal Win by 1 Goal: | +£4.70 |
| Arsenal Win by 2 Goals or More: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
ASTON VILLA V BOURNEMOUTH (14:00 GMT)
Villa have recovered from their disaster start, and their xG numbers are starting to steady. Despite that, Bournemouth are still genuinely good.
BET: Bournemouth +.25 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)
| Bournemouth Win: | +£9.10 |
| Draw: | -£4.55 |
| Aston Villa Win: | -£10.00 |
CRYSTAL PALACE V BRIGHTON (14:00 GMT)
This should be a really good game to watch, Palace have slightly unravelled recently but not at home. While Brighton have been getting decent results against the top sides. Also, amazed to see the last seven results between these two at this ground..
BET: Palace -.25 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| Palace Win: | +£9.90 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Brighton Win: | -£10.00 |
FOREST V LEEDS (14:00 GMT)
Hate this bet, but banking on Leeds to continue their poor scoring and chance creation away from home. Value on Forest here.
BET: Forest -.25 at 2.05 (Asian Handicap)
| Forest Win: | +£10.50 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Leeds Win: | -£10.00 |
MAN CITY V LIVERPOOL (16:30 GMT)
My model prefers Man City on a -.75 line instead, this current line should be priced around 1.76. Liverpool may have a horrible time with their defensive issues, while City look for revenge for last season’s match here.
BET: Man City -.5 at 1.96 (Asian Handicap)
| Man City Win: | +£9.60 |
| Draw/Liverpool Win: | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
SATURDAY
LEVERKUSEN V HEIDENHEIM (14:30 GMT)
My model suggests the line should be closer to -2.0 instead.
BET: Leverkusen -1.25 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)
| Leverkusen Win by 2 or more: | +£8.80 |
| Leverkusen Win by 1 Goal: | -£5.00 |
| Leverkusen DO NOT Win: | -£10.00 |
SUNDAY
STUTTGART V AUGSBURG (16:30 GMT)
This line should be closer to -1.75.
BET: Stuttgart -1.0 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Stuttgart Win by 2 or more: | +£9.00 |
| Stuttgart Win by 1 Goal: | Stake Return |
| Stuttart DO NOT Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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