Results from last article
Man alive. I made two changes before publishing the last article; I changed my bets in favour of Villa & Brighton to Bournemouth and Palace. If I hadn’t done that I would have had a weekend with ZERO losses. Rare, but close.
Profit / Loss from 08/11/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE (£) | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham v Man Utd | Tottenham 0 | 2.12 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| West Ham v Burnley | West Ham -.5 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +£10.00 |
| Leverkusen v Heidenheim | Leverkusen -1.25 | 1.88 | 10.00 | +£8.80 |
| Sunderland v Arsenal | Sunderland +1.25 | 1.94 | 10.00 | +£9.40 |
| Aston Villa v Bournemouth | Bournemouth +.25 | 1.91 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Crystal Palace v Brighton | Palace -.25 | 1.99 | 10.00 | -£5.00 |
| Forest v Leeds | Forest -.25 | 2.05 | 10.00 | +£10.50 |
| Man City v Liverpool | Man City -.5 | 1.96 | 10.00 | +£9.60 |
| Stuttgart v Augsburg | Stuttgart -1 | 1.9 | 10.00 | Stake Return |
| Total P/L: | +£33.30 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£175.62 |
Premier League
SATURDAY
BOURNEMOUTH V WEST HAM
Can’t believe I’m betting against Bournemouth.. can’t believe I’m betting FOR West Ham! The hosts’ defensive xG numbers are in free fall, they are conceding good chances left, right, and centre. West Ham looking slightly more stable recently, and let’s not forget how this match ended last season.
BET: West Ham +.75 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)
| West Ham Win/Draw: | +£10.90 |
| Bournemouth Win by 1 goal: | -£5.00 |
| Bournemouth Win by 2 goals or more: | -£10.00 |
LIVERPOOL V NOTT FOREST
I will watch this one with my eyes closed.
BET: Forest +1.25 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)
| Forest Win/Draw: | +£9.00 |
| Liverpool Win by 1 goal: | +£4.50 |
| Liverpool Win by 2 goals or more: | -£10.00 |
NEWCASTLE V MAN CITY
My worry with this bet is that Howe has a terrible record against City, and Haaland is just a force. Both Liverpool and Arsenal were pushed hard to get a positive result in this match and I expect the same again here for City.
BET: Newcastle +.5 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)
| Newcastle Win/Draw: | +£9.20 |
| Man City Win: | -£10.00 |
LEEDS V ASTON VILLA
Leeds are better than their form suggests, especially from home. Same can be said for Villa, just flipped. Good results for the away side recently however they’re still the 3rd worst side in the league according to my model.
BET: Leeds 0 at 2.14 (Asian Handicap)
| Brighton Win: | +£11.40 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Aston Villa Win: | -£10.00 |
ARSENAL V SPURS
Even with Gabriel missing, this is a bet being made. Odegaard may return too, assisting Arsenal’s fire power. Merino up top, he will score from a corner. Just watch.
BET: Arsenal -1.25 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)
| Arsenal Win by 2 or more goals: | +£10.20 |
| Arsenal Win by 1 goal: | -£5.00 |
| Draw/Spurs Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
BIRMINGHAM V NORWICH
Clement has a tough first match as Norwich manager, away to Birmingham who are the third best team in the Championship so far according to my model’s justice table.
BET: Birmingham -.75 at 1.89 (Asian Handicap)
| Birmingham win by 2 or more: | +£8.90 |
| Birmingham win by 1 goal: | +£4.45 |
| Draw/Norwich Win: | -£10.00 |
IPSWICH V WREXHAM
I mean… come on? Feel like this line should be harsher on Ipswich, and my model agrees.
BET: Ipswich -1 at 1.98 (Asian Handicap)
| Ipswich Win by 2 or more goals: | +£9.80 |
| Ipswich Win by 1 goal: | Stake Return |
| Draw/Wrexham Win: | -£10.00 |
Bundesliga
BAYERN MUNICH V FREIBURG
Surprising line, good value bet on Munich here. Maybe avoid the -2.25 which is has moved to.
BET: Bayern -2 at 1.85 (Asian Handicap)
| Bayern Win by 3 or more goals: | +£8.50 |
| Bayern Win by 2 goals: | Stake Return |
| Bayern DO NOT win by 2 goals: | -£10.00 |
DORTMUND V STUTTGART
The underlying numbers for both of these sides are fairly even, perhaps leaning more to Stuttgart’s side. Value.
BET: Stuttgart +.75 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Stuttgart Win/Draw: | +£9.30 |
| Dortmund Win by 1 goal: | -£5.00 |
| Dortmund Win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
WOLFSBURG V LEVERKUSEN
This line should be much heavier for Leverkusen. I’m surprised their odds haven’t decreased past evens.
BET: Leverkusen -.5 at 2.04 (Asian Handicap)
| Leverkusen Win: | +£10.40 |
| Draw/Wolfsburg Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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