Results from last article

A small loss this weekend, perhaps fortunate to have had three goals in the final match after two really disappointing results from Brighton and Bournemouth. Anyway, onto BOXING DAY and POST BOXING DAY FOOTBALL. These matches can be REALLY unpredictable, so bet with caution.

Profit / Loss from 20/12/25

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE (£)	PROFIT/LOSS
Brighton v Sunderland	Brighton -.75	1.9	10.00	-£10.00
Bournemouth v Burnley	Bournemouth -1.25	2.07	10.00	-£10.00
Spurs v Liverpool	Liverpool -.25	1.86	10.00	+£8.60
Spurs v Liverpool	Over 2.75 Goals	1.92	10.00	+£4.60
			Total P/L:	-£6.80
			Overall P/L:	+£195.22

Premier League

MAN UNITED V NEWCASTLE

Caveat, Bruno F. is out until Jan. Feels like a draw-y match, Newcastle’s away form this season has left a lot to be desired while United have been fairly decent at home. United are third placed in my model’s “Justice Table”, with a positive 0.51 xGD per 90.

BET: Man Utd 0 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)

Man Utd Win:	+£9.30
Draw:	Stake Return
Newcastle Win:	-£10.00

BURNLEY V EVERTON

Everton are missing a fair bit of creativity for the next few weeks, might nick a win here but I can see this one being a bore draw/Burnley win.

BET: Burnley +.5 at 1.91 (Asian Handicap)

Burnley Win/Draw:	+£9.10
Everton Win:	-£10.00

LIVERPOOL V WOLVES

Yikes, we’re going for this. Wolves put out a terrific defensive display against Arsenal, however I think they’ll be braver in this match and come out to play a bit more with Liverpool’s defence being vunerable right now.

BET: Liverpool -1.75 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)

Liverpool Win by 3 or more goals:	+£9.20
Liverpool Win by 2 goals:	+£4.60
Liverpool DO NOT win by 2 goals or more:	-£10.00

CRYSTAL PALACE V SPURS

Regression has come back to haunt Spurs after their overperformance at the start of the season, even though they boast one of the best away teams so far this season.. it won’t continue to be. Their away underlying numbers overall aren’t that great. Mateta hatty.

BET: Crystal Palace -.25 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)

Palace Win:	+£10.20
Draw:	-£5.00
Spurs Win:	-£10.00

Championship

WEST BROM V BRISTOL CITY

West Brom have consistantly put up higher xG numbers than their xGA at home this season, their three-game rolling defensive xG hasn’t gone above 1.0. City’s however is currently above 1.5.

BET: West Brom -.25 at 1.87 (Asian Handicap)

West Brom Win:	+£8.70
Draw:	-£5.00
Bristol City Win:	-£10.00

COVENTRY V SWANSEA

I will back any decent line on Coventry winning right now, I’ve made most of my money on this side in 2025. My model has them to win at a probability of 62% here.

BET: Coventry -.75 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)

Coventry Win by 2 or more:	+£8.80
Coventry Win by 1 Goal:	+£4.40
Coventry DO NOT win:	-£10.00