Results from last article
Down -0.5 points this week, leaving me with a small loss of -£7.70. I can live with that. I’m going to write up an end of year report, see how every bet fared since the start of these articles in 2025. Look out for that one!
Profit / Loss from 06/01/26
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE (£) | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham v Nott Forest | Under 2.5 Goals | 1.96 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Everton v Wolves | Wolves +.75 | 1.90 | 10.00 | +9.00 |
| Fulham v Chelsea | Fulham +.5 | 1.87 | 10.00 | +8.70 |
| Burnley v Man Utd | Under 2.75 Goals | 1.88 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Newcastle v Leeds | Newcastle -.75 | 1.92 | 10.00 | +4.60 |
| Arsenal v Liverpool | Arsenal -1 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Lecce v Roma | Lecce +.75 | 1.93 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Sassoulo v Juventus | Juventus -.75 | 2.0 | 10.00 | +10.00 |
| Total P/L: | -£7.70 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£145.52 |
Premier League
MAN UTD V MAN CITY
The big one. Carrick’s first match was unfortunate to end in a draw away at Burnley, however their performance against the Seagulls in the FA Cup wasn’t much to shout home about. They created as xG much as they conceded and lost the match 1-2. City, who have a habit of always over performing their xG under Pep, will eat them alive if they allow them to create decent chances like other sides have. United are in reset mode, City are still the better side. As an Arsenal fan I would love to lose this bet, but my brain is ignoring emotion here.
BET: Man City -.5 at 2.05 (Asian Handicap)
| Man City Win: | +£10.50 |
| Draw/Man Utd Win: | -£10.00 |
LIVERPOOL V BURNLEY
Liverpool are currently unbeaten in eleven matches (all comps), and their results are beginning to reflect their underlying numbers now. I have concerns on who will score the goals for the hosts, Ekitike is back though so hopefully.. he returns the goods. The good news for Liverpool is that Burnley concede a LOT of high quality chances per game.
BET: Liverpool -1.75 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)
| Liverpool Win by 3 or more goals: | +£9.30 |
| Liverpool Win by 2 goals: | +£4.65 |
| Liverpool DO NOT win by 2 or more: | -£10.00 |
ASTON VILLA V EVERTON
I’m nervous betting on Villa right now because they are *heavily* over performing their expected numbers, which is unsustainable. Don’t argue with me, it just is. Their results will regress eventually to where they should be. However, they just seem to keep winning and Everton aren’t great away from home. Hoping to bank on their winning side of variance right now.
BET: Aston Villa -.75 at 1.95 (Asian Handicap)
| Aston Villa Win by 2 or more: | +£9.50 |
| Aston Villa Win by 1 goal: | +£4.75 |
| Draw/Everton Win: | -£10.00 |
CHELSEA V BRENTFORD
Brentford are currently topping the table for form right now and travel away to a Chelsea side who have one win in nine league matches, also have a new manager, and are also fighting a virus inside the training camp.
BET: Brentford +.75 at 1.99 (Asian Handicap)
| Brentford Win/Draw: | +£9.20 |
| Chelsea Win by 1 goal: | -£5.00 |
| Chelsea Win by 2 or more goals: | -£10.00 |
SUNDERLAND V CRYSTAL PALACE
Sunderland are regressing after their amazing start, while Palace are currently uninspiring. Their numbers are ok despite zero wins in their last nine (all comps). Likely a draw, not a fan of this bet, but Palace are the side who *should* be winning here. Surely a step up performance after their poor loss to Macclesfield in the FA Cup.
BET: Palace 0 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)
| Crystal Palace Win: | +£10.60 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Sunderland Win: | -£10.00 |
Championship
COVENTRY V LEICESTER
Still riding the Coventry train for bets, however they’ve slipped a bit recently.
BET: Coventry -1 at 2.07 (Asian Handicap)
| Coventry Win by 2 or more goals: | +£10.70 |
| Coventry Win by 1 goal: | Stake Return |
| Draw/Leicester Win: | -£10.00 |
IPSWICH V BLACKBURN
Same again. Ipswich are the best side in the Championship according to my model, let’s ride.
BET: Ipswich -1 at 1.94 (Asian Handicap)
| Ipswich Win by 2 or more goals: | +£9.40 |
| Ipswich Win by 1 goal: | Stake Return |
| Draw/Blackburn Win: | -£10.00 |
CHARLTON V SHEFFIELD UTD
Sheff Utd should be in the top four according to my model, they’re results are reflecting their performances now. This line seems odd considering.
BET: Sheff Utd -.25 at 1.88 (Asian Handicap)
| Sheff Utd Win: | +£8.80 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Charlton Win: | -£10.00 |
WREXHAM V NORWICH
Seems like a close game on paper, and the odds reflect it. Wrexham have been the better side against most recently at home, and the underlying numbers say so too.
BET: Wrexham -.25 at 2.01 (Asian Handicap)
| Wrexham Win: | +£10.10 |
| Draw: | -£5.00 |
| Norwich Win: | -£10.00 |
SWANSEA V BIRMINGHAM
Dodgy bet, only holding due to Birmingham being poor away from home this season.
BET: Swansea 0 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)
| Swansea Win: | +£10.60 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Birmingham Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
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