Results from last article
Oh boy. Definately my worst performing article via results, but I also feel a bit hard done by. Let’s break this down.
- United outplayed City so that bet deserved to lose. (-1 pt, deserved loss)
- Liverpool drew 1-1 with Burnley but the xG says a different story. 3.18 – 0.40. (-1 pt, harsh)
- Villa lost 1-0 at home to Everton but won 1.4 – 0.5 on xG… (-1 pt, harsh)
- Chelsea beat Brentford 2-0, but the xG was level and Brentford were by far the better side. (-1 pt, harsh)
- Sunderland deserved their win against sad old Palace. (-1 pt, deserved loss)
- Coventry beat Leicester 2-1 and the xG score is the same. (0 pt, correct)
- Ipswich destroyed Blackburn 3-0, xG agreed with that scoreline (+1 pt, correct)
- Sheffield Utd played their second half against Charlton with nine men, after dominating the first half and should have been winning. They created a measly 0.01 xG in the second half and lost 1-0. (-1 pt. frustrating, but harsh loss. 1.0 – 0.73 on xG)
- Wrexham lost 2-1 at home to Norwich but won 1.6 – 0.7 on xG. (-1 pt, harsh)
- Swansea drew 1-1 with Birmingham in a match they slightly edged but probably a fair result. (0 pt, fair)
Overall I’m down -6 points this week, only winning one of my ten bets. But when analysing the results above, it’s harsh. I should’ve ended the weekend on a break even of zero points. On average my articles have been scoring +0.39 points since the very start. This set of heavy results is down to being on the harsh side of variance.. it happens! Gotta move on.
Profit / Loss from 17/01/26
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE (£) | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd v Man City | Man City -.5 | 2.05 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Liverpool v Burnley | Liverpool -1.75 | 1.93 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Aston Villa v Everton | Aston Villa -.75 | 1.95 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Chelsea v Brentford | Brentford +.75 | 1.99 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Sunderland v Palace | Palace 0 | 2.06 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Coventry v Leicester | Coventry -1 | 2.07 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Ipswich v Blackburn | Ipswich -1 | 1.94 | 10.00 | +£9.40 |
| Charlton v Sheff Utd | Sheff Utd -.25 | 1.88 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Wrexham v Norwich | Wrexham -.25 | 2.01 | 10.00 | -£10.00 |
| Swansea v Birmingham | Swansea 0 | 2.06 | 10.00 | Stake Returned |
| Total P/L: | -£60.60 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£84.92 |
If you haven’t heard already, Opta have pulled their advanced metrics from fbref.com which is where I would source my data from. While I find another alternative data source I will be focusing solely on the Premier League.
Premier League
FULHAM V BRIGHTON
Fulham are a hard team to face at home, but overall Brighton are a much, much better side than them this year. Even if they don’t win here, I think Brighton will win the xG battle.
BET: Brighton 0 at 2.06 (Asian Handicap)
| Brighton Win: | +£10.60 |
| Draw: | Stake Return |
| Fulham Win: | -£10.00 |
MAN CITY V WOLVES
Honestly, I wanted to back the Wolves line here as they have been really good under Edwards. However an away trip to the Etihad is a hard one, despite City’s injuries. Plus City come into this off the back off a really embarrassing 3-1 loss to BODO/GLIMT and they were outclassed by United in their derby, they will likely have a bug up their butt. Sorry Wolves.
BET: Man City -1.75 at 1.86 (Asian Handicap)
| Man City Win by 3 or more goals: | +£8.60 |
| Man City Win by 2 goals: | +£4.30 |
| Man City DO NOT win by 2 or more goals: | -£10.00 |
BOURNEMOUTH V LIVERPOOL
Made this bet so fast. Liverpool’s rolling xG away from home has dropped below 1.0, while Bournemouth are still creating as much as their conceding. This could be a really good game to watch.
BET: Bournemouth +.5 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)
| Bournemouth Win/Draw: | +£10.20 |
| Liverpool Win: | -£10.00 |
BRENTFORD V NOTT FOREST
Hard task for Forest here.
BET: Brentford -.5 at 2.04 (Asian Handicap)
| Brentford Win: | +£10.40 |
| Draw/Nott Forest Win: | -£10.00 |
ARSENAL V MAN UTD
As good as United were at home against City, Arsenal are not the same task. They may get some joy on the counter, but Arsenal will be aware and are very competent at preventing counters. Arsenal were imperious against Inter in the Champions League this week, and I have a funny feeling Gyokeres will score here, even if Jesus starts.
BET: Arsenal -1 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)
| Arsenal Win by 2 or more goals: | +£10.20 |
| Arsenal Win by 1 goal: | Stake Return |
| Draw/United Win: | -£10.00 |
OddsDash 
Leave a comment