Results from last article

Rough losses here, having a heavy hard run here. Only bet which was unfortunate to lose was the City v Spurs match, should’ve won if not for a Solanke flick on from 0.15 xG.

Profit / Loss from 21/02/26

MATCH	BET	BF ODDS	STAKE (£)	PROFIT/LOSS
Leeds v Arsenal	Leeds +1	1.92	10.00	-10.00
Brighton v Everton	Brighton -.5	1.97	10.00	-10.00
Liverpool v Newcastle	Newcastle +.75	1.88	10.00	-10.00
Spurs v Man City	Man City -.75	1.98	10.00	-10.00
			Total P/L:
			Overall P/L:	+£29.42

Premier League

ASTON VILLA V LEEDS

Rolling xG is kinder than actual home results for Villa, the GD for both sides for their last three matches are identical at -1 a piece. Leeds are okay on the road at the moment, Villa are conceding less than 0.5 xG at home right now though.

BET: Villa -.5 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)

Villa Win:	+£9.20
Leeds Win/Draw:	-£10.00

CHELSEA V BURNLEY

This bet feels dirty, but makes sense? Chelsea are currently creating 2.5 xG at home per game while Burnley are conceded around 2.2 xG away from home. Palmer has recently appeared on the goal involvement sheets again too. In form.

BET: Over 3.25 Goals at 1.98 (Asian Handicap)

4 Goals or More:	+£9.80
Exactly 3 Goals:	-£5.00
2 Goals or Less:	-£10.00

WEST HAM V BOURNEMOUTH

Weirdly, may be a really entertaining match. At a neutral line, I’m picking the weird high variance side who manage to get results no matter their xG.

BET: Bournemouth 0 at 2.01 (Asian Handicap)

Bournemouth Win:	+£10.10
Draw:	Stake Return
West Ham Win:	-£10.00

NOTT FOREST V LIVERPOOL

Hate this bet, but historically this line has won 53% of the time. Despite constant managerial changes, Forest is still a sticky place to visit for big clubs.

BET: Nott Forest +.5 at 2.09 (Asian Handicap)

Forest Win/Draw:	+£10.90
Liverpool Win:	-£10.00