SATURDAY

NOTTM FOREST V MAN CITY

Ehhh. Forest’s xG against has taken a slight turn for the worse recently, making them feel a bit more defensive recently than they have been since the turn of the year. They sat back a lot against Arsenal, and they weren’t themselves against Ipswich in the FA Cup but managed to get through on penalties. City will be a different test, and I can easily see this bet not going through. But the edge is there so I can’t ignore it.

Despite everything I just said, Forest still have only lost twice at home this season (0-1 Fulham, 1-3 Newcastle), and City have only won six of their fourteen away matches. The market has this line priced at 2.02, but my model suggests a price of 1.88.

Hoping for another Forest home performance against City like the end of last season, but with a more positive result.. they really should’ve won that game. They lost 2-0, but won the game on xG 1.93 – 0.87.

BET: Forest +.5 at 2.02 (Asian Handicap)

BRIGHTON V FULHAM

These sides are so similar, it’s hard to analyse this one so I’ll keep it short.

Brighton really tick when Welbeck is in their XI this season, and since his return from injury they’ve won three on the bounce. Fulham have won their last three away matches as well so this could be quite an interesting watch, or dull.

Fulham have a slightly better xG difference in their last five away fixtures compared to Brighton’s home which makes the model slightly lean on them here. The market has them priced on this line at 1.93, but my model prefers 1.78.

BET: Fulham +.5 at 1.93 (Asian Handicap)

WOLVES V EVERTON

ANOTHER EVERTON BET! I’m yet to lose any money on the Toffees so far, and I’m liking the look of this bet. Wolves have lost Cunha for their next four matches which is great news for the Everton defence. That’s going to be a big loss for their attack in such a crucial set of matches.

I’ve got a graph to show you which showcases how good Everton have been since Moyes took over. His first match was in gameweek 21 which was a 0-1 home loss to Aston Villa. Since then they’ve failed to lose a game, winning four and drawing three. The blue line is their average xG, and the red their xG conceded. They’re much more solid at the back, while their attacking work is.. working wonders. They’re in a good place.

Market has Everton priced at 2.11, but my model suggests 1.88. A nice edge.

BET: Everton 0 at 2.11 (Asian Handicap)

MAN UNITED V ARSENAL

Gosh, another Arsenal bet. I hate this one too, but there is an edge and a reason! Something went right for Arsenal midweek in the Champions League; that thing was the fact that the opponent keeper had a dreadful evening. But they were imperious despite that and deserved their big win.

Arsenal are clear favourites here against a United side who have been dreadful this season, and they’re getting worse it seems. They’re now averaging less that 1.0 xG per game while conceding 1.7 xG. Arsenal should be looking for a clean sheet here, and a win is crucial.

My model suggests the two most likely scorelines to be 0-1 (13.3%) and 0-2 (11.8%) to Arsenal. The market has this line priced at EVES (2.0), but my model prefers 1.83 for the Gunners. Don’t let me down Mikel ❤

BET: Arsenal -.75 at 2.0 (Asian Handicap)

NORWICH V OXFORD

Oxford have really struggled away from home this season, winning just once (1-0 away at Millwall). They’ve failed to score in their last four away matches too, averaging 0.52 xG in those matches. That’s less than their season away xG average of 0.8, which isn’t great either.

Norwich’s form has been ok. Just the once defeat in their last seven matches. While I agree with my model and the markets that they should be the favourites here, I am slightly concerned with their inability to keep a clean sheet at home having only done so just once.

Market has this one priced at 2.04, my model suggests a price of 1.84.

BET: Norwich -1 at 2.04 (Asian Handicap)

WATFORD V MILLWALL

Millwall should be higher up in the table according to the expected points. Above Watford too at 10th, while Watford should be lower down at 18th. One win in their last six home matches leads this bet not in favour of the hosts who turned over Luton fairly ok in their last home game.

Millwall have scored in their last six away matches, can’t help but feel they’ll continue that scoring form into this game too. It’s up to Watford to turn this bet on it’s head, but the form is against them. Might be better with Bayo back though..?

The market has this line priced at 1.92, my models suggests 1.82.

BET: Millwall +.25 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)

PLYMOUTH V SHEFF WED

Plymouth have won their last five home meetings with the Owls, dating back to 2010 when they were both playing in League One. Heck, this bet could go pear shaped but there seems to be some error in the current price at 1.9. My model suggests a price of 1.68.

Despite their league position, Plymouth have only lost four home matches all season! Whereas Sheffield Wednesday are all over the place with their away form, with two wins in their last seven away trips. Can see this one being a draw, hopefully nothing for Wednesday.. sorry Owl fans.

BET: Plymouth +.5 at 1.9 (Asian Handicap)

CELTA VIGO V LEGANES

Leganes have only won win away from home all season, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a draw. They also have an xG difference of -3.8 in their last five away matches. Celta Vigo have only lost three times at home this season, and drawn just twice. Their xG difference is better though, +1.4 for their last five home matches.

Leganes are struggling to score away from home at the moment, scoring just two goals from 4.1 xG in their last five away trips. Celta are not having that problem, scoring nine from 6.8 xG.

The market has this priced at 2.05, fair enough. But my model says 1.85? Nice.

BET: Celta Vigo -1 at 2.05 (Asian Handicap)

SATURDAY

FREIBURG V RB LEIPZIG

Freiburg are on a five match unbeaten run and are having a lovely little season, currently finding themselves in fifth spot. Their joint top in the table for league form, matched with Bayern Munich. They’re hosting RB Leipzig who have just one win in their last five.

Freiburg have only lost twice at home this season, and Leipzig have only won five times away from home. In terms of xG difference, Freiburg are doing better form wise. Both teams are in the minus, but Leipzig are worse off with a recent xG difference of -5.7. Freiburg have -0.3.

My model has this line priced at 1.80, but the market is higher at 1.92.

BET: Freiburg 0 at 1.92 (Asian Handicap)

LECCE V MILAN

Another Milan bet, but this one for them to win. xG form is massively in their favour here, despite their patchy form. They really shouldn’t have lost their lost away match to Torino 2-1, (they really won 0.3-2.4 on xG). Lecce haven’t won in their last five home matches, drawing twice. They have only scored once in those matches too, conceding five.

The market has priced this at 2.11 which seems REALLY off. My model suggests 1.95. Best of luck.

BET: Milan -.75 at 2.11 (Asian Handicap)