There’s now a week and a bit break before there are any more MLS fixtures to bet on, and a whole month before the Brasileiro Serie A returns from their break. So I thought I’d take the time to summarise how the value bets have performed so far. Before that though, let’s just quickly see how the Sunday morning bets fared.
Results from Sunday
Profit / Loss from 14/06/25
| MATCH | BET | BF ODDS | STAKE | PROFIT/LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis v LA Galaxy | St. Louis -.25 | 1.87 | 10.00 | -5.00 |
| Columbus v Vancouver Whitecaps | Vancouver +.5 | 2.02 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Philadelphia v Charlotte FC | Philadelphia -.5 | 2.06 | 10.00 | +10.60 |
| Kansas City v FC Dallas | Dallas +.25 | 2.05 | 10.00 | +10.50 |
| Austin FC v New York Red Bulls | Austin -.25 | 1.91 | 10.00 | +9.10 |
| Colorado v Orlando City | Colorado +.25 | 2.0 | 10.00 | -10.00 |
| Total P/L: | +£5.20 | |||
| Overall P/L: | +£226.07 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Bets | 193 |
| Won | 100 |
| Lost | 77 |
| Pushes (stake returns) | 16 |
| Win Rate % | 51.8 |
| Average Odds | 1.99 |
| Average CLV % | -0.36 |
| Total Staked | £1,930.00 |
| Profit/Loss | £226.07 |
| ROI | 11.7% |
RESULTS
As you can tell from the chart below, I started off flying. After fifty bets I had a win rate between 70-80%, but that very quickly shot down to around 50% where it should have been. It currently stands at 51.8% which is +0.6% higher than the average odds suggest my win rate should be.
Market Implied Win Rate: ((1 / Average odds) * 100) = 50.2%.
Thankfully results stayed somewhat stable for the next hundred bets as I floated around the £100-£200 bracket. And now, steadily going in an upwards trajectory again. My only concern so far is that my CLV% remains, only slightly, negative. It it increasing though which is good.
Here’s a simpler chart showing the profit gained per article rather that per bet:
Summary Tables
Results by Article
Results by Month
| Article | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/25 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +£41.70 |
| 04/02/25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -£10.00 |
| 07/02/25 | 9 | 4 | 4 | -£9.10 |
| 11/02/25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +£14.50 |
| 14/02/25 | 12 | 9 | 3 | +£45.25 |
| 21/02/25 | 11 | 7 | 2 | +£50.00 |
| 25/02/25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +£17.20 |
| 27/02/25 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +£12.20 |
| 04/03/25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +£10.20 |
| 07/03/25 | 10 | 3 | 4 | -£15.05 |
| 11/03/25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -£4.95 |
| 14/03/25 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +£12.40 |
| 17/03/25 (no bets) | —— | —— | —— | —— |
| 28/03/25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | -£7.15 |
| 01/04/25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -£19.10 |
| 04/04/25 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +£7.40 |
| 08/04/25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -£0.70 |
| 11/04/25 | 12 | 5 | 5 | -£3.85 |
| 18/04/25 | 9 | 3 | 5 | -£10.70 |
| 22/04/25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -£1.30 |
| 25/04/25 | 11 | 9 | 2 | +£61.65 |
| 01/05/25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +£0.60 |
| 03/05/25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -£25.00 |
| 10/05/25 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -£12.40 |
| 17/05/25 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +£13.82 |
| 25/05/25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -£2.00 |
| 31/05/25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +£18.50 |
| 12/06/25 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +£26.05 |
| 13/06/25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +£10.70 |
| 14/06/25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +£5.20 |
| Totals: | 193 | 100 | 77 | +£226.07 |
| Month | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 51 | 33 | 14 | +£167.95 |
| March | 47 | 20 | 21 | -£10.75 |
| April | 51 | 25 | 22 | +£33.40 |
| May | 26 | 9 | 15 | -£34.98 |
| June | 18 | 13 | 5 | +£70.45 |
| Totals: | 193 | 100 | 77 | +£226.07 |
This is a great return on £10 stakes, if I were a pro and used £300 stakes.. the profit would be sitting at +£6,782.10.
Results by Market
| Market | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian Handicap | 165 | 85 | 64 | +£192.37 |
| Match Odds | 21 | 13 | 8 | +£63.50 |
| Over/Under | 1 | 1 | 0 | +£10.20 |
| BTTS | 6 | 1 | 5 | -£40.00 |
| Totals: | 193 | 100 | 77 | +£226.07 |
One slightly misleading thing I should probably adjust is that the bets listen under “Match Odds” were all “X to Win” bets, which is the same as the -.5 handicap line. It would be best to blend those two categories together: +£255.87.
Results by Venue
| Venue | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 92 | 45 | 39 | +£63.40 |
| Away | 87 | 49 | 31 | +£179.82 |
| Neutral | 2 | 2 | 0 | +£19.00 |
| Totals: | 181 | 96 | 70 | +£262.22 |
Results by Competition
| Country | Competition | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit/loss | CLV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENGLAND | Premier League | 62 | 32 | 20 | +£118.32 | +0.62 |
| ENGLAND | FA Cup | 4 | 4 | 0 | +£36.80 | +1.18 |
| DENMARK | Superliga | 4 | 3 | 0 | +£25.00 | +1.20 |
| ITALY | Serie A | 8 | 3 | 2 | +£24.10 | +0.87 |
| USA | MLS | 22 | 11 | 7 | +£22.40 | -2.05 |
| BRAZIL | Serie A | 7 | 3 | 2 | +£17.55 | -2.15 |
| ENGLAND | Championship | 47 | 18 | 17 | +£6.00 | -0.22 |
| GERMANY | Bundesliga | 16 | 5 | 7 | -£4.20 | -1.14 |
| SPAIN | La Liga | 23 | 7 | 9 | -£19.90 | -1.55 |
Results by CLV
| CLV | Profit/Loss | Bets | Won | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >= 0 % | +£178.15 | 112 | 60 | 40 |
| < 0% | +£47.92 | 81 | 40 | 37 |
Table above shows the importance of beating the closing line value. Also had my money returned more on the positive CLV bets (12), than the negative (4).
As you can see.. my hot spot for success was in the Premier League. A league that is considered sharp and hard to profit from. I’d be interested to see how much profit/loss I’d have made over a full season though. Very pleased and proud of my results in that league.
I really struggled to crack Spain and Germany, but I will recalibrate and try again next season. I haven’t really made enough bets to consider those leagues duds. The one league that I really want to crack though is the Championship. Just +£6.00 profit over forty-seven bets. I actually thought it was in the red for so a +6.00 is a positive for me. But I want it to be a LOT more, Prem League more. There are more games, and they play every few days. I will crack it. I will.
It’s interesting for me to see that I have made significantly more money betting on away sides than the hosts (+£135.42 difference, including neutral as both sides were away). When back testing my model I had a lower RMSE & MAE (Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error) on my away expected goal predictions compared to the home sides. To see it reflected in the profits is a nice confirmation.
OK – time to keep plugging away, to keep improving, and to keep trying to make more money! Adios, I will enjoy this short break by rewatching all of Ted Lasso.
OddsDash 
Leave a comment